Category: Equity Research

Banking Analysts have cut cut earnings estimates for the banking sector by 12-15% over FY14-16 as they build cuts to GDP forecasts and continuity of high interest rates. Asset quality pressures will aggravate and expect some moves from the Finance ministry to protect the Banks. PSU banks are most vulnerable due to higher exposure to SME and riskier segments, pressure on staff costs and sensitive investment-book. In this backdrop, Loan growth should moderate to 12-15% over medium term and banks with stronger deposit franchise will gain share from low CASA banks and other financiers.

Corporates with unhedged forex exposure would also face (more…)

After Citigroup Analysts came and Downgraded India, everybody has jumped into the “Me Too” bandwagon. The liquidity tightening measures adopted by the RBI look set to continue for longer. Concerns about premature tapering by the Fed have led to an environment of low liquidity that seems likely to continue for the foreseeable horizon. (more…)

BofA Merrill was the one of the first Research House which said that the SENSEX Earnings will be tapered to as low as Rs 1260 for FY 2014. Bofa Merrill’s estimates were in as early as April so that left ample time for investors like us sitting with 90% investments in Equities to Book Profits in the Rally but unfortunately we didn’t.

In the aftermath of the Massive Appreciation of USD against Indian Rupee and Decade Low GDP Growth Citi Analysts Questioned the Rationale behind India Quoting at 14 P/E on forward earnings when Bank’s Asset Quality is questionable as the Government (more…)

FII Mover & Shaker of Indian Market, Citigroup Equity Research has set the undertone of to be Bearish on India. Citi says that India has gone back to its old normal (FY95-03): lower growth, higher uncertainty and yes, lower market multiples

The macro-economic levels: be it its fiscal deficit, which it reduced from 6%+ to under 3% over the 2003-08 period; inflation – which it sustainably reduced to sub 5% in the 2001-03 period; and its currency, which appreciated almost 25% (Rs49 to sub Rs40) over 2001-07. These no doubt (more…)