Midcap Pick: Everest Kanto Cylinder

Everest Kanto is a dominant player in the domestic and global high pressure seamless gas cylinder market with ~75% market share in India and about 11% worldwide. The majority of its customers are OEMs (based in India, Iran, Pakistan and China). The market has not fully priced in the company’s ability to execute and grow in a supply-constrained global cylinder market (estimated demand of 5 mn cylinders in FY2009 according to the IANGV). Estimate a utilization rate of 60% and a sales CAGR of 50% for FY2008-FY2010E. (more…)

Weak Rupee – Buy IT – Lehman Brothers

Lehman Brothers has been at the fore-front in covering the Indian IT Stocks. They were the first one to downgrade last October and subsequently after the blood bath upgraded tier-I Indian IT stocks. Just a while ago they have reiterated a BUY on Infosys, Wipro and TCS due to the weakness in rupee which is probably going to last longer than expected.

Infosys Technologies:
Lehman Brothers’ economics team expects the FY09E US$-INR average exchange rate to be 41.2 (3% depreciation from the average rate in FY08), against the earlier forecast of 39.4. (more…)

Tata Motors + Mahindra & Mahindra Downgraded to SELL

Its time to say Goodbye to Automobile Stocks. Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have been downgraded to a SELL by Merill Lynch.

Tata Motors will be impacted by strong headwinds of restricted financing in commercial vehicles and the low priced Nano car. The major reasons for the downgrade are – moderation in commercial vehicle sales on tight financing availability, margins decline on adverse sales mix and lower volumes, forex losses on weaker rupee and fallout impact on inter-related subsidiaries. (more…)

Shri Renuka Sugars – No More Sweet

Merill Lynch has downgraded Shri Renuka Sugars on a number of factors – Indian govt steps to reduce buffer stock of about 5mn tonne sugar to reign in inflation coupled with prospect of good monsoon has increased supply side risk. Over 15% additional sugar cane production in Brazil has raised supply pressure and US Congress approval of farm bill on 15th May08 maintaining import tariff barrier on ethanol a deterrent too. (more…)

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