Sobha Developers Ltd IPO – Analysis and Recommendation.

After having read the draft and final Red Herring prospectus of the company, here is DalalStreet.Biz detailed analysis and recommendation on Sobha Developers IPO.

Read – Sobha Developers initial Review -1
Read – Sobha Developers Business Line Review
Read – How to value Indian Real Estate Stocks ?

We expect the company’s bottomline to grow by 80% over last year at Rs 160 crores for FY07 and 50% for FY08 Rs 240 crores, yielding an EPS of Rs 22 for FY07 and Rs 32.8 for FY08 on fully diluted equity.

Sobha Developers Land bank: Cushman and Wakefield have valued the lands of Sobha Developers and at the lower end, constituting the sum of it’s Land Reserves [Rs 3,971 crores] + Land Arrangements [Rs 2, 306 crores] is Rs 6277 crores. NAV of Land bank at lower end is Rs 859 per equity share. On the higher end the Land Bank is valued at Rs 6937 crores which translates to Rs 950 per share.

Sobha gets full credit for its management which is visible by the number of contracts it fulfills for India’s top IT company, Infosys Technologies Ltd.

Sobha Developers pre-IPO private placement: Sobha did a private placement to Kotak Mahindra Private Equity Fund and Bennett & Coleman for 5.83 Lakh shares at Rs 617 per share on Oct-28-2006.

Sobha IPO Final Recommendation: Sobha’s discounting maybe based on Cash Flow more than Land Bank as it derives significant part of its income from contract works. Majority of the indicators are in favor of applying, we still advise caution and recommend that only investors who are willing to hold for a period of atleast 12 months should apply in the event of market crash. Your critics and comments are most welcome.

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Sobha Developers Ltd IPO – Business Line Critics

DalalStreet.Biz initiated its coverage on Sobha developers IPO last week. Sobha Developers Review – 1 is here and Sobha Developers Land Bank Details is available here.

Vidya Bala, writer for Business Line newsppare writes that, Sobha’s offer price at Rs 550 or Rs 640 is at a P/E multiple of 19 or 22 times its expected earnings for Fy08 [Not FY07]. Why isn’t Vidya writing about FY07 ? Why isn’t Vidya clearly stating the figures ? Oho! their can be some Page3 scenes going in the background 🙂 . Lets analyze this. Offer price of Rs 640 at 22 times P/E translates into earnings per share of Rs 29 for FY08. Which translates into a Net profit of Rs 211 crores for FY08 on an equity of 7.29 crore shares of face value Rs10 each.

Sobha’s profits for first half of FY07 (sept-30th 2006) is Rs 53 crores. It has recorded a 137% growth over first half of last year. So if we assume Sobha grows at 100% for full year its net profits for FY07 will be 180 crores. So in FY08 will Sobha Developers just grow by mere 17.20% ? [Net Profit of 211 crores as arrived above.] When and where will growth slowdown ? I hope you now understand what is the problem with Business Line Analysis.

Business Line also writes that investors with HIGH RISK APPETITE can subscribe to the issue. Your thoughts and comments are appreciated. Mail them to nascentnet AT Yahoo Dot Com.

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Info Edge India – Basis of allotment

The basis of allotment for Info Edge India IPO Limited is as mentioned below. This is for Retail Individual Investors.

Info Edge (India)

Oversubscription Figures:

HNI : 61.46106 times

RETAIL : 11.10637 times

Basis of allocation under Retail:

No of Shares Applied

No. of Shares Allotted

Ratio

20

20

9:100

40

20

9:50

60

20

27:100

80

20

9:25

100

20

9:20

120

20

27:50

140

20

63:100

160

20

18:25

180

20

81:100

200

20

9:10

220

20

FIRM

240

22

FIRM

260

24

FIRM

280

25

FIRM

300

27

FIRM

You can check if you are allotted or not on Intime Spectrum registry here.

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Blue Bird (India) Limited IPO – Review – 1

Blue Bird (India) Limited, a leading manufacturer of paper-based notebook and stationery products with the highest market share of 48% amongst large, organised players in India, is entering the capital market with a public issue.

Issue Size: No of 8,775,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each at a premium to be decided through the 100% book-building process. The price band for the issue has been fixed at Rs. 90 to Rs. 105.

Date: Issue opens for subscription/bids on November 16, 2006 and closes on November 22, 2006.

Out of the net offer to the public, 50% is reserved for allotment to Qualified Institutional Buyers, of which 5% is reserved for allotment to Mutual Funds. Further, 15% is reserved for allotment on a proportionate basis to Non-Institutional Buyers and the balance 35% will be allotted to Retail Individual Bidders on a proportionate basis. The issue constitutes 25.07% of the fully-diluted post-issue capital of the company.

The company has privately placed 1,225,000 equity shares at a price of Rs. 98 per share with India China Pre-IPO Equity (Mauritius) Limited, a SEBI-registered Foreign Venture Capital Investor which has appointed ST Asset Management Limited, wholly owned by Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited, as its investment manager.

The company is raising capital through this public issue to finance the construction of its second major notebook manufacturing and printing unit in South India; to expand capacity at its existing plant in Pune and purchase the registered and corporate office premises presently on leave and licence; to expand its network of sales and distribution offices throughout India; to augment its long-term working capital requirements; and to repay some existing long-term debts.

Blue Bird (India) Limited, under its “Blue Bird” brand of paper-based notebooks, has built a strong presence in western and southern India. According to a survey carried out by AC Nielsen ORG-MARG, approximately 80% of the Indian notebook and stationery market is controlled by unorganized, local players. Of the 20% of the market catered to by the organised segment, 15% is controlled by large, national players and the balance 5% by medium-sized, regional players. AC Nielsen ORG-MARG has estimated that Blue Bird enjoys the highest market share of 48% of the total market share controlled by large, organised players.

In addition to notebooks, the company also manufactures products like files, perforated pads, registers and filler papers as part of its stationery business. Moreover, the company publishes study aids/educational materials and children’s books with in-house developed content and is also engaged in commercial printing of third-party content including textbooks, magazines, catalogues, calendars and annual reports.

During fiscal 2005, Blue Bird began export of notebooks and printed materials to Kenya, Ghana and South Africa. The company plans to expand both its market presence within India and in sub-Saharan Africa, with increased marketing efforts and penetration in the export market.

Financials: Blue Bird had total income of Rs. 401.70 crores and net profit of Rs. 25.12 crores in fiscal 2006. The company has posted improved performance during the first-half of the current year. For the period ending September 30, 2006, the company reported a total income of Rs. 237.55 crores, 18.34% higher compared to the previous year’s first-half total income of Rs. 200.75 crores. During the same period, net profit for the first half of fiscal 2007 at Rs. 15.10 crores was 19.65% higher compared to the previous year’s first-half net profit of 12.62 crores.

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