Category: Economy, Markets and Macro Views

Since the the beginning of 2012, India and China dominated performance in Asia. UBS stepping in the shoes of a Bull in India, thought by the end of February that this market was too advanced, particularly in light of the UP and Other election, budget and seasonal tightness in liquidity. Since mid February, India has given up most of its relative gains for the year, China is now under-performing. (more…)

Given the unique growth-inflation dynamics of Indian Economy, the RBI was expected to ease rates for the first time in three years. However, it surprised positively – cutting its key policy rates by 50bps – higher than expectations of a 25bps cut. The repo and reverse repo rates now stand at 8% and 7% respectively. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) was left unchanged at 4.75%.

What is Beneficial to the Banks ? The RBI raised the borrowing limit (more…)

The Central Government doesn’t seem to get anything right – Budget Proposals Rolled back, Railway Minister Sacked, etc All these are steps backward for the forward looking Equity Analysts as the Congress Government does not want anybody with Brains to push Progressive Reforms and Policies but require muppets and puppets 🙂 [Old Man always seen complaining, Coalition Compulsions, Ufff!!!] Now that a media favored by the ruling party leaked a massive mother of all scams investigation report by CAG that will rock the nation soon – CoalGate – Coal Blocks Allocation Scam. Did the media have vested interest in telling Government, especially the PMO to go CYA 🙂

Anyway, Goldman Sachs has upgraded India (more…)

The Railway Budget has adequately addressed the ongoing financial woes with revenue-enhancing measures. The passenger fare hikes come on the back of freight rate hikes on March 6, 2012. The rail budget can be considered non-populist and is a reflection of the intensely tight fiscal conditions facing the governments in general and is reflected in the fact that the passenger fare hike (10% to 12%) has happened after a long gap of 8 years.

Rail budget sets ambitious targets (more…)

The forthcoming week is an eventful week for the market with the IIP Data, RBI Monetary Policy Review, Railways and the Union Budget.

IIP Data – The core sector growth of almost zero percent suggest the data is going to be week for almost 6 months now. Expectations are for 1% growth which is very weak. The RBI and government must understand that with 1.2 Bn population we cannot have slow industrial growth else there will huge unemployment problem in India.

WPI Inflation Data – With surprise huge upward revisions in index of previous months this month we may have index level of 158.1 assuming upward revisions to continue.

Will the Government Hike Oil Prices ? Everybody thought the hike will come as soon as election results (more…)

The last few months we have seldom posted here except asking investors to stick to Large Caps during Blood Bath. The Goal of this Publication is to create long term wealth by means of investing in Equities and Related Instruments. Indian Liberalised Economy is now 2 decades old and Policies Matter a Lot. Hence this Brief Insight from our twenty plus years of experience on Dalal Street 🙂

How India was Run by Her Politicians ?
The old way of running India involved holding back expenditures in the initial years post General Elections and administering a blast of public expenditures in the pre-general election financial year. This model could (more…)