Category: Economy, Markets and Macro Views

Its time to take a look at Corporate India’s performance in Q1FY09. Profit GROWTH for the Sensex companies came out at 11.7%, the lowest since 2002. SENSEX. Ebitda margins declined marginally by 51bps to 20.6% and Ebitda grew by 26.3%, excluding financials. Growth was mainly concentrated in four sectors – Media (29%, supported by exceptionals), Telecoms (27%), Capital Goods (+25%) and Real Estate (+25%). (more…)

Amtek Auto has announced the consolidation of all group companies into itself amidst declaring weak results. Consolidated earnings after minority interest including gain on sale of shares (net of losses on forex hedges) of Rs 305 mm came in at Rs 1,070 mm. Lower operating margin at 15.5%. Adjusted net earnings after minority interest of Rs 765 mm were 22% below last year’s Rs 981 mm; depreciation was up 39% to Rs 584 mm and interest was up 19% to Rs 300 mm. (more…)

The RBI has tightened money supply in the Indian markets by raising the CRR by 25 bps and in a surprise move raised the repo rate by 50 bps taking it to 9.0% [This is the rate at which banks will borrow from RBI] We had expected a 25bps repo rate hike.

GDP growth projection for 2008-09 revised from the range of 8.0-8.5 per cent to around 8.0 per cent, barring domestic or external shocks. While the policy actions would aim to bring down the current intolerable level of inflation to a tolerable level of below 5.0% as soon as possible and around 3.0 per cent over the medium-term, at this juncture a realistic policy endeavour would be to bring down inflation from the current level of about 11.0-12.0 per cent to a level close to 7.0% by March 31, 2009. (more…)

We all know by now that ICICI Bank is one of the Worst Banks in Customer Service as well as QoS in every service that it provides. From Credit Cards to Online Trading, the bank’s management sucks and it is high time that the RBI and Finance Ministry and concerned authorities take stock of the situation before it gets out of control.

Today, I am writing to expose ICICI Direct Online Share Trading Platform. The day was July-23rd, a day after Trust vote when the markets surged. (more…)

RBI’s quarterly policy review is due on Tuesday, the 29th of July. Inflation continues to be at 12% level and we see some deceleration in growth numbers of Indian corporates. RBI policy officials have gone on record to say,

the government’s first priority is inflation and price stability; we may have to sacrifice a bit of growth to tackle inflation.

We expect the RBI to hike CRR by 25-50bps either in its July 29th policy or later, in August. However, declining oil prices could alter the equation to some extent. (more…)

India’s long-term story is intact but unfortunately we are in a bear market. The 5 main factors adding fuel to the fire are – Macro, Global Risk Appetite, Monsoon, Earnings Outlook and Sentiments.

The macro is bad with high crude oil prices and hence rising inflation, slowing growth and ultimately, higher long bond yields. Global risk appetite or global financial market conditions are key given India’s relatively high beta status underpinned by how India’s balance sheet is funded. (more…)