Jain Irrigation – Result Analysis

In F4Q08, JISL reported standalone revenues of Rs6bn (33% YoY) and EBITDA margins of 20.6% (460bps YoY expansion) driving 72% growth in EBITDA to Rs1.2bn. MIS grew 54% YoY to Rs2.4bn with strong demand across key states while EBITDA margins remained flat at around 31%. Plastics business grew 21% YoY in F4Q08 driven by domestic pipes business (47% YoY), while the sheets business (largely exports) declined 30% YoY impacted by US housing slowdown. Agro processing (AP) grew 25% YoY owing to muted growth in fruit processing (12%).

The company is expected to report a full year EPS of Rs 25 for FY09.

Geometric Ltd – Analysis

Geometric Ltd reported weak Q4FY08 numbers, with revenue growing by just 2.0% QoQ to Rs1,265m, while net profit declined by 31.4% QoQ to Rs47m. EBITDA grew 10% QoQ, while operating margin expanded 90bps to 12.5%. PAT margin declined 180bps to 3.7% of revenue, driven down under pressure from losses under other income. Other income reported a loss of Rs11m (as compared to a profit of Rs26m last quarter) and Rs203m for the entire fiscal.

We are underweight on Midcap IT stocks in India and we are recommending investors to Book Profits and exit the sector and look at companies with domestic business model such as Infrastructure, Telecom, Retail etc.

FAG Precision Bearings India – Analysis

Fag Bearings’ (FBIL) Q1CY08 results were better than our expectations. Net sales grew by 9.4% YoY from Rs1.57bn to Rs1.72bn (we expected Rs1.75bn), mainly due to slowdown in the auto and industrial sectors. There was a sharp drop in two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales during the quarter, which has affected overall sales growth.

The company’s EBIDTA margin declined by 30bps from 22.2% to 21.9% YoY (we expected 16.0%), due to increase in personnel cost. Personnel cost increased by 200bps from Rs115m to Rs159m due to rise in salaries and lower sales growth. Material cost declined by 80bps from 53.9% to 53.1% despite rise in prices of steel and components, as the company was able to pass the same to its customers. FBIL’s net profit improved by 15.5% YoY from Rs220m to Rs254m due to lower tax rate (we expected Rs178m).

We expect the company on a conservative basis to report an EPS of Rs 65 for FY09.

Orient Paper Industries

The turnover in Orient’s ‘fans’ business, at Rs1.3bn, grew 27% yoy during 4Q08, followed by cement at 16%. Paper however slipped 18% yoy due to a 10-day unprecedented shutdown. Total turnover for the quarter, at Rs3.8bn, beat our estimates by 4%. Cement aggregate volumes, at 0.65m tons, inched up 2% yoy. Net realizations, at ~Rs2,950 a ton, rose 13% yoy (and 3% qoq).

The company made a provision of Rs 125m for receivables from its Kenya JV, Pan Paper. Adjusting for this, operating profit, at Rs982m, crossed our estimate of Rs 946m. A temporary shutdown at the paper plant reduced its profitability to Rs35m (Rs104m yoy, Rs111m qoq). This led to an overall dip in the OPM yoy and qoq.

However, the company is expected to report no growth in EPS for FY09 and is likely to be Rs 11.

Ultratech Cements – Margin Pressures Due to Costs

Ultratech Cement’s PAT came in at Rs2.8bn,up 22% yoy, but 9% below estimates. While realizations grew in-line with our estimates, costs came in higher. As a result, 4Q EBITDA margins at 30.5% were up only 90bps yoy but down 340bps qoq. FY08 PAT rose 29% to Rs10bn.

Given capacity constraints, ULTC’s cement volumes have remained flattish for both 4Q (4.2mt) and FY08 (15mt). There has been an increasing focus on domestic markets, with cement exports falling 39% in 4Q and 43% in FY08. Realizations have grown 11% yoy
both in 4Q and FY08; however, prices in 4Q were flat qoq in ULTC’s markets.

Rising costs have been the key factor in keeping margins muted during 4Q. Key pressure areas were raw materials, wages and power & fuel costs. The Indian Real Estate Developers have alleged lobby by Cement and Steel companies and the Government’s move to BAN cement exports with immediate effect to bring soaring inflation will impact Ultratech.

Sanghi Industries Results Review

Sanghi Industries has faxed us its results and here is the review from our analyst.

Top-line growth led by higher volumes. Average realizations increased 7.4% qoq (and 16.6% yoy) to Rs3,482 a ton. Aggregate volumes for the quarter, at 0.7m tons were up 14% qoq, though they dipped 20% yoy. Net sales, at Rs2.45bn, came in above our expectations of Rs2.09bn. Higher realizations help margin improvement. EBITDA per ton improved to Rs1,148, compared to ~Rs839 in 3Q08 (~Rs 1,310 in 4Q07). Better realizations and robust volume growth boosted EBITDA growth qoq. OPM rose 710bp qoq on the back of higher realizations.

Export Ban to impact average realizations. Sanghi exported ~35% of its sales volumes in FY08 and a ban on exports will impact it unless its able to sell the same volumes in domestic market without taking any price cuts.

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