Apollo Tyres + Ceat – Result Analysis

Ceat Tyres: Ceat’s Q4FY2008 results are ahead of our expectations, mainly on the sales front. The net sales of the company grew by 14.8% to Rs646.2 crore in the quarter. The original equipment (OE) sales continued to decline whereas the replacement sales grew strongly by 28.2% in Q4FY2008.

The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 180 basis points to 6.0% as a result of a higher raw material cost. Consequently, the operating profit declined by 12.3% to Rs38.5 crore.

For FY2008, the sales grew by 9.2% to Rs2,329 crore and the adjusted profit after tax (PAT) increased by 80.7% to Rs67.7 crore. Ceat sold a small part of its Bhandup plant and realised a value of Rs130 crore during the year. So, the reported PAT grew by 294% to Rs147.6 crore.

Apollo Tyres: Apollo Tyres’ (ATL) Q4FY08 results were in line with projections, though raw material prices increased more than expected. Net profit grew by 38.7% YoY to Rs 593m, aided by a 10% growth in revenue and a 140bps rise in the EBITDA margin. The company has announced major capacity programmes for the next three years involving an investment of Rs 11.5bn towards a greenfield project in Tamil Nadu and for increasing existing radial capacities for passenger car as well as truck & bus tyres at its Baroda plant.

Higher CAPEX and investment would impact the company’s cash flow in the medium term. EPS growth is expected to be flat for Fy2009.

K S Oils – Losing Viscosity

K S Oils (KSO) has reported above-expected revenue growth for Q4FY08, at 107% YoY to Rs 6.7bn. The quarter’s performance was backed by higher branded and retail sales coupled with stronger average realizations. While net profit came in slightly below estimates, growth was nevertheless robust at 91% YoY to Rs 402mn.

During FY08, KSO witnessed a sharp rise in the average sales price of edible oils. There is a cut back on sales volume expectations for crude mustard oil for these two years, anticipating pressure due to price hikes. In addition, we expect the company to encounter procurement cost pressures, which would have an impact on margins. Subsequent to these adjustments, earnings estimates for FY09 and FY10 stand reduced by 15% and 17% respectively

Bharat Forge – Weak Castings

Recurring parent PAT at Rs 683m (+6% Y/Y), was in-line with estimates. EBITDA margin rose 70 bps y/y (50 bps above estimates) led by stronger growth in exports, and (we reckon) the attendant beneficial DEPB impact. However, slower growth in domestic demand, margin pressures due to rise in input costs, a volatile currency, and slower-than-expected turnaround in operations of subsidiaries and JV operations are a dent on its bottom line.

Although subsidiary operations are expected to improve over the next two years, parent PAT is forecast to account for c80-85% of consolidated PAT over the next 2 years – and parent operations are thus the key to long-term growth and profitability. We forecast strong earnings CAGR of 26% in standalone PAT over the next two years, driven by steady improvement in export sales (notably in non auto segment).

Bharat Forge’s EPS for FY09 is expected to be mere Rs 14.3 while that of FY10 is expected to hit Rs 20.25.

SAIL Exhibits Strength

Steel Authority of India (SAIL) reported robust numbers for the quarter ended March 2008. Revenues for the quarter rose 32.8% YoY to Rs 137.9bn on the back of sharply higher realizations, with record saleable steel production of 3.5mn tons and improved product mix. However, bottom-line growth lagged that of the top line mainly due to higher employee costs (additional provision of Rs 15.9bn), which rose 100% YoY due to wage revision of employees, w.e.f 1 Jan 2007.

EBITDA margins declined by 260bps YoY, primarily due to higher employee costs. Profits rose 25% YoY to Rs 23.7bn. For FY08, the company reported an 18.2% growth in revenues (including price escalation) and an EBITDA of Rs 122bn, up 24% YoY. Operating margins for the year stood at 29.7% vs. 28.3%.

Forthcoming Real Estate Projects from Mahindra Lifespace

Mahindra Lifespace is probably the only Developer who has witnessed higher selling prices even in areas like Delhi’s NCR where prices have fallen. We are in receipt of confirmed reports that in Faridabad, the company’s realisation actually increased to Rs4,000 psf from the launch price of Rs3,875 psf in Q4FY2008.

Project / City / Commencement
Mahindra Eminente Phase II Mumbai FY 2009
Mahindra Splendour Phase II Mumbai FY 2009
GE Gardens Mumbai FY 2009
Commercial Pimpri FY 2009
Sylvan County Chennai FY 2009
Residential Gurgaon FY 2010
Residential Nasik FY2010
Residential Nagpur FY 2009

We expect Mahindra Eminente to sell upwards of Rs 10,000 / sft based on previously sold prices of various Mahindra Lifespace Residential projects in India.

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