HDFC Bank – Q3 Result Analysis

HDFC Bank delivered stable operational performance in the current quarter, in line with its historical trend. PAT (Rs6.2 bn) was up 30% yoy and 11% ahead of our estimates. The company was able to increase its net interest margin (NIM) to around 4.3% in 3QFY09 despite a decrease in CASA ratio due to better pricing of its loan products.

HDFC Bank’s outstanding loans declined by 3% on a sequential basis and while its investments increased sharply by 43% during the same period. We believe that slower loan growth is prudent in the current stage of the economic cycle.

Gross NPLs increased to Rs19.1 bn (up 14% sequentially)-management indicates that it is largely on account of erstwhile CBoP.

HDFC Bank is expected to report an EPS of Rs 53.5 for FY09 and Rs 67 for FY10.

Infosys Q3 revenues grew by 35.5% year on year

Infosys Technologies has announced its audited standalone and consolidated results for the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

On a standalone basis, the company reported an increase of 34.73% in net profit after tax at Rs 1,598 crore, as compared to Rs 1,186 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The total income of the company increased by 31.94% to Rs 5,477 crore from Rs 4,151 crore for the same quarter last year

On the consolidated basis, the Group has posted an increase of 33.30% in net profit after tax & minority interest to Rs 1,641crore as compared to Rs 1,231 crore in the same quarter last year.

Total Income of the company has increased by 31.54% to Rs 5,826 crore from Rs 4,429 crore in the corresponding previous quarter.

November IIP grew at 2.4%

Indian IIP registered a positive growth of 2.4% in the month of November. The growth was higher and relieving compared to negative growth (de-growth) of 0.4% recorded in the October. However, industrial growth in November was lower than the same recorded in November 2007 at 4.9%.

Most of the economists were expecting flattish or slightly negative number for November. Earlier, the government data showed that output in the core or infrastructure sector grew by 2.2% in November compared with same month last year.

One of the factors that helped IIP come back in green was low base effect of last year. November 2008 growth of 4.9% was lowest in last fiscal. Cumulative growth over the first eight months of current fiscal stood at 3.9% compared to 9.2% in the same month last year.

Punj Lloyd’s recovery from SABIC less likely

FreePress broke the story about Punj Lloyd’s subsidiary in the UK starting proceedings against SABIC. The 2 parties have been unable to come to an amicable resolution on the disputed amount, and legal redressal is now sought.

Recall, Punj management had assured investors that it expects a favourable resolution, in response to auditor comments in FY2008 accounts, on the overstatement of revenues on this contract. The company had subsequently managed to recover Rs1B of the original
disputed amount of Rs3B, but the balance had been kept in abeyance.

Now with the entire amount less likely to be recovered, the additional potential hit is to the tune of Rs3.2/share. Punj Lloyd remains vulnerable to prolongation and cancellation of M-E orders, given its high (25%) exposure to that geography.

Inflation at 5.91% for Dec-27 Week

Inflation continues to come down even as monetary authorities follow a liberal credit policy to halt the slowdown in economy. The wholesale price index (WPI) registered a decline of 0.3% to 229.5 for week ended December 27. Rate of increase in prices or inflation stood at 5.91% in the said week compared to 6.38% in the previous week.

The decline was visible across all the segments. Manufacturing index was down 0.3% week-on-week while Primary articles were down 0.5% W-o-W. Meanwhile the inflation figures for week ended Nov 1 was revised to 8.7% versus 8.98% (provisional).

Inflation has taken a much steeper trajectory on its way back compared to what was being anticipated by most economists. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was targeting to bring inflation down to 7% by end of 2008 while the current figures are substantially lower than that.

Economists expect inflation to continue its falling rapidly in coming weeks due to lower base effect of last year and decline in excise implemented earlier in December trickling down.

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