Industrial production Output @ -2%

For Dec 08, growth in industrial production, at -2.0%.

Industrial production was also affected due to a high base in Dec 07. Although there has a y-o-y decline, there was a significant improvement on a m-o-m basis. Mining and electricity stayed positive at 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively, whereas manufacturing reported a negative number (2.5%) for Dec 08.

There has been a decline in food products, machinery and transport equipment in the manufactured sectors, which contributes 80% of industrial production. In the use based category, there has been a decline in consumer durables and intermediate goods. Consumer durables is correcting faster than expected.

Given that manufacturing activity is more exposed to international demand, the results show that the serious global demand destruction has affected India. The ministry of commerce had earlier mentioned that there might have been a 20% decline of exports in Jan 09.

Activity indicators weaker than expected

A look at recent activity indicators. The January reading of our India Surprise Index1 points to a fourth consecutive month of negative surprises, impacting asset prices. Other indicators of activity also show across the board weakness.

Other indicators to note: Foreign exchange reserves rose by US$1 billion after falling sharply by US$4.6 billion in the previous week. After a fortnight of interruption due to a trucker’s strike, WPI inflation started to move down again to 5.1%. Money market spreads have been moving lower since the start of the year, but are still high compared to pre-crisis levels.

Although industrial production growth was stronger than expected, exports and motor sales data was very weak. Exports fell 9.9% yoy and motor sales fell 11.8% yoy, pulling the surprise index down. The PMI Index contracted for a third consecutive month in January, although at 46.7 it rose slightly from the low of 44.4 in December. Domestic data on tax collections, commercial vehicle sales and domestic airline traffic fell rapidly.

Real policy rates are still high in India compared to the region, and we think that the RBI will cut rates further in the face of declining activity. Watch out for our preview on the budget, coming up soon.

OnMobile Global Net Zooms

OnMobile Global Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2008:

The results for the Quarter ended December 31, 2008

The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 204.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 108.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Total Income has increased from Rs 578.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 to Rs 947.00 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

The Consolidated results are as follows:

The consolidated results for the Quarter ended December 31, 2008

The Group has posted a net profit of Rs 276.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. Total Income has increased is Rs 1236.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

Inflation at 5.64% – Food WPI at 11.01

For the week ending 17 Jan 09, headline inflation (the wholesale price index, WPI) rose to 5.64%.

Food grains, cereals, vegetables and other food articles moved up. On the other hand, pulses, condiments, spices, eggs, meat, fish, oilseeds, non-food articles, fibers and minerals fell.

For the first time after Jul 08, mineral oil (petroleum product) prices rose w-o-w. The government announced a cut in administered fuel prices (petrol by Rs5, diesel by Rs2 and LPG by Rs25/cylinder). This would further dampen overall inflation.

Prices of manufactured products such as food products, beverages and chemicals, and metal products rose. Whereas edible oils, non-metallic products, machinery and transport equipment fell. Lack of price update in WPI for malt liquor during FY09 so far (41 weeks), resulted in a 25% jump in these prices, while there was a surprise 23% w-o-w jump in turpentine, synthetic resins and plastic materials.

Blue Star announces Q3 results

Blue Star Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2008:

The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 321.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 where as the same was at Rs 354.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Total Income is Rs 5668.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 where as the same was at Rs 5149.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

The results of the quarter ended December 31, 2008 include the results of the Electrical Contacting business acquired from Naseer Electricals Pvt. Ltd. on January 24, 2008 and to that extent are not comparable with the results for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Bharat Electronics Q3 results + Dividend

Bharat Electronics Ltd has announced the following Unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2008:

The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 1227.690 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 1129.687 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Total Income has decreased from Rs 7285.619 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 to Rs 7165.377 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

Bharat Electronics’ board, at its meeting held on January 23, 2009, has declared an interim dividend of Rs 6 per share for the year 2008-09.

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