IRB Infra – Banking on Roads – Stock Price Ahead of Fundas

IRB Infra could largely benefit from the road infra-layout of the Government if it continues to exercise restrain and focus on bagging high RoEs orders only. The company is embarking on a new strategy that could give it additional management bandwidth for execution.

NHAI appears to be on course to award road projects at a run-rate of 4,000-6,000 kms per year for the next five years. With a market share of ~8% for projects awarded so far, IRB could largely benefit from the increase in road projects.

2QFY10 results were ahead of estimates primarily on better than expected margins. Construction margin at 20.7% recorded an improvement of 230bps QoQ.

EPS estimates of IRB Infra:
Nomura – 10 and 13 for fy10 and fy11 respectively
Deutsche Bank – 12 and 17 for fy10 and fy11 respectively
UBS – 11 and 13 for fy10 and fy11
Kotak – 11 and 14 for fy10 and fy11 respectively

It appears to be slightly higher at 240 levels.

GVK Power + Bangalore Airport Deal – Analysis

GVKPIL announced that its board approved acquisition of a 12% stake in Bangalore International Airport Ltd for consideration of ~Rs4.846bn from Flughafen Zuerich AG. GVK intends to fund the acquisition via debt. The company has also recently raised ~$150mn through the QIP route.

Bangalore airport is the 4th largest airport in India in terms of passenger traffic handled – it handled 9.2mn passengers in 2008. The airport is spread over 4,000 acres of land; with 215 acres of land earmarked for commercial development. (more…)

Mundra Port & SEZ – Large Deals Ahead

MPSEZ 2QFY10 recurring PAT grew +22%YoY despite slow growth in port income +5%YoY on rebound in high margin SEZ income +41% & 30% lower tax on SEZ benefit on port income. Adani Power has scaled-up its Mundra Project by 70% to 7.9GW, which will drive long-term assured volume for MPSEZ’s new coal terminal.

Mundra Port was one of the few Asian ports to report 2QFY10 cargo volume growth of +9%YoY to 10.1mmT led by liquid cargo +55% and crude cargo +43%, Coal cargo +19% despite Minerals (more…)

Shoppers Stop – Recovery in Lifestyle Spending Helps

Shoppers Stop Limited (SSL) on a consolidated asis reported a growth of 9.1% yoy in its revenues during 2QFY2010 to Rs382.2cr (Rs350.1cr). SSL clocked the growth on the back of SSS growth of 2.3% for Shoppers Stop departmental stores and 1.8% growth for all formats on yoy basis,thus ending the declining trend posted for the last three quarters. SSL’s Bottom-line improved significantly thereby posting a profit of Rs8.7cr in 2QFY2010 against a loss of Rs18.3cr in 2QFY2009.

The performance is significantly impressive on qoq basis as in 1QFY2010 the company had posted a 6.3% decline in departmental stores sales and a 7.5% decline in all (more…)

ICICI Bank – Positive Surprise + Transition Continues

ICICI Bank‘s profits for Q2FY10 grew 3% YoY and 18% QoQ driven by 18% fall in operating expenses. Net revenues (adjusting for trading gains) declined 15% YoY due to 5% decline in NII as loan book shrunk 13% YoY in Q2. Fee income continued to decline YoY (26% in Q2). Demand deposits grew 9% YoY and 14% QoQ.

ROA set to increase to 1.3% by FY11e, led by improving margins. Core RoE of the bank could rise to ~17% by FY12 v/s 11% (more…)

SBI – Bank in Everybody’s Portfolio – Q2 Review

State Bank of India, the largest bank and banker to every Indian reported a 2Q FY10 net profit of INR24.9bn, up 10% y-o-y and 7% q-o-q. Even though NII growth was muted on a y-o-y basis on a q-o-q basis it was encouraging. The net interest margin recovered by 25bp q-o-q to 2.6%, led by the retiring of high-cost bulk deposits.

Key positives: margins, fees and costs have moved in the right direction – together. Margins were up 25bps qoq (from a low 230bps), but management’s guidance of a 10bp per quarter expansion will likely disappoint possibly higher market expectations. (more…)

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