Tata Steel Results Cracking – Merrill Bearish – Morgan Bullish

Bull vs bearTata Steel announced its results for Q2 FY2010.Both Corus and Tata Steel consolidated reported EBITDA and PAT were in red for the Sep qtr as losses at Teesside (TCP), and restructuring charges of Rs9.1B (some related to contract cancellations) hit earnings.

Corus reported EBITDA loss of $375MM (including TCP loss of $170MM) vs the 1Q loss of $387MM. Realizations fell q/q across segments in Europe. Tata reported consolidated PAT loss of Rs28B, 35% higher than 1Q loss of Rs20.2B. Tata Steel plans to reduce debt by $2B in the (more…)

Dubai + UAE links to India

Indian are ~40% of UAE’s population; forming ~10-12% of India’s inward remittances. 31% of the 5.3m Indians in the Gulf are in UAE.

UAE forms ~8% of India’s non-oil exports and 3.0-3.5% of India’s nonoil imports. DP World operates five container terminals in India, accounting for 40% of India’s container traffic.

L&T has two joint ventures in the UAE, others with business interests include Gammon India. EMMAR world’s leading realty player originationg from Dubai has a JV with MGF in India.

Nagarjuna has invested Rs700m in a Dubai real estate project. Punj has 15% of its order backlog of Rs268bn from the Middle East [Dubai is negligible though]

Bank of Baroda has 10 branches in the Gulf (largest), but mostly small banking exposure, mainly for remittances. Bank lending to UAE funded projects in India unknown.

Investment Strategy for 2010 – Morgan

Investment ThemesAfter Merrill unveiled its investment outlook for 2010, Morgan Stanley has pushed the button forward on what it looks in the Indian markets for 2010. Here is an excerpt from the same,

1. Value in PSU Banks – The Central Bank is likely to start raising rates in January 2010. Rising rates favor Indian banks as they run a maturity mismatch on their balance sheets (liabilities have a longer maturity). Thus NIMs will rise; coupled with acceleration in loan growth (which trails IIP growth), this will help earnings. PSU Banks trade at better (more…)

BHEL’s Order from JP Power – Analysis

BHEL won its single largest order ever, which also happens be its 1st super-critical order from Pvt. IPP, worth Rs56bn for 3x660MW from JP Power for its Bara TPS in UP.

BHEL won its largest order, which also happens be its 1st super-critical (SC) order from Pvt. IPP worth Rs56bn for 3x660MW from JP Power. Apart from 4.5% add to backlog and improving visibility, key implications are a) BHEL gets closer to its indigenisation thresh-hold with order of 7 SC sets of 8-10 SC sets required, b) BHEL could also win an additional Rs35bn order in FY11E for phase II of this project being a supplier to the first phase and c) realization healthy @ Rs28mn / MW vs sub-critical @ Rs20mn / MW.

BHEL’s total order Backlog is +21% at Rs1.26tn, 1H Inflow weak to correct in 2H.

Indian Telecom Industry Overview for Investors

Indian TelecomThe Indian Telecom industry is now dominated by Wireless vertical and going forward, even the Data / Broadband market will go the unwired way. Here is an overlook at the industry at macro level with forthcoming developments – Spectrum and Fees, 3G Auction and finally Consolidation.

Industry is still growing (23% in FY11 and 15% in FY12), spectrum constraints and tariff pressures are likely to limit the upside. More importantly, prices should decline further (25% in FY11e) due to increased competitive intensity, which will weigh on margins and earnings. (more…)

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