Single-digit demand growth not enough for Cement Industry

April despatch growth at 8.9% yoy; down 7.6% sequentially April cement despatches came in at 18.1 mn tonnes, up 8.9% yoy, down
7.6% mom – this is 3rd straight month of single-digit growth in cement demand.

As we enter the phase of seasonally muted demand growth with the onset of monsoons, we believe there could be downside risks to our FY11 forecast of 11% growth. Additionally, we could see demand growth tapering off in the north, as construction activity led by (more…)

Ranbaxy Labs – Solid Q1 – Expect Earnings Upgrades

Ranbaxy reported 1Q PAT of Rs9.6bn, on exclusivity sales of Valtrex, US$50m (Rs2.3bn) income from Flomax settlement & forex gains of Rs4.5bn. Besides one-offs, base biz trends appear strong with most markets growing, despite a 6% INR appreciation. While EBITDA margins were skewed by exclusivity sales, cost containment measures seem to have borne fruit as SG&A costs declined QoQ.11.

Ranbaxy’s 1Q results reflect its ability to monetize its FTF pipeline despite its issues in the US. Both Valtrex & Flomax have (more…)

Hindalco – Aluminum Smelting Profits

Hindalco Industries’ (Hindalco, standalone) Q4FY10 net revenues, at INR 54.0 bn, were below our expectation of INR 58.2 bn. EBITDA, at INR 8.35 bn, was below estimates due to preponed shutdown of copper smelter for 38 days leading to ~15 kt of lost production. However, net profit, at INR 6.6 bn, was above our estimate of INR 5.5 bn due to higher-than-expected other income and tax write-back of INR 1.1 bn. (more…)

Greece – Europe and India – Key Economic Parameters

We wrote over the weekend explaining the crisis in Greece and Europe. Though India is not secluded because its investor base comprises of those FIIs who have exposure to several markets across the globe.

Lets analyze key economic parameters of India first and then see its impact on the markets. India’s European export exposure is limited to 3% of GDP. India’s public debt, at 75% of GDP, is close to peripheral Europe’s. The key difference? (more…)

BSE Sensex Target 100,000 – When & How ?

I am pretty sure that you are calling me insane of giving a 100,000 / 1 Lakh Target for BSE Sensex. Well, it isn’t me but Chris Roberts of Mizuho Securities Asia Limited from Hong Kong. Chris in his report said that,

Our roadmap on India sees the April 1992 through September 2001 period as a completed secular bear market. From the 1992 low of 2,595, we expect a large five-wave advance to form, given that we have only completed waves i and ii of that move we (more…)

Punjab National Bank – Results Above expectations

PNB reported earnings of Rs11.4bn, a +30% yoy growth (9% ahead of est.), but was only 3-4% ahead of est. if adj. for one-off gain (UTI MF stake sale). But, more importantly, core earnings sprung a surprise with operating earnings (+20% higher) driven by sharply lower opex (base effect as 4QFY09 had very high wage prov.). PNB has a buffer (wage prov. at 21% vs. settlement at 17.5%). (more…)

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