Citigroup revises Satyam target upwards

In a research report released minutes ago by Citigroup equity research, they have maintained a BUY recommendation on Satyam Computers Ltd and revised the price target upwards to Rs 582 from Rs 510, 20% appreciation available from current levels.

3Q07 reported numbers were in-line with consensus expectations – however, considering that restricted stock unit (RSU) charge was deferred until next quarter, the results were below expectations.

3Q margins were boosted by seasonal/one-off items like lower leave encashment charges (down from Rs350m to Rs100m QoQ) and lower gratuity (down from Rs110m to Rs30m QoQ). All these seasonal factors reverting to normal levels and introduction of RSU charges will restrict any margin improvement in 4Q.

Satyam’s top-line growth story remains intact with good client wins and strong hiring of ~47% LTM, we believe that revenue outlook for FY08 remains strong. Margin pressures are likely to
continue. Despite factoring in a 150bp improvement in pricing in FY08, the full impact of RSU and wage hikes will result in a margin decline of ~100bps in FY08.

M&A story buried: Satyam has clearly stated in the investor release that it is not looking to get acquired [Speculators bought rumors of CapGemini BUYING out Satyam due to low promoters stake in the company], the M&A story gets buried.

Satyam is expected to report an EPS of Rs 25.18 and Rs 30.23 for FY08 and FY09. After the below-expectation quarterly performance, Satyam is back to a 28% discount to Infosys (vs. 22% before Satyam’s 3Q results). Our target price builds in a 25% discount to Infosys.

Power Finance IPO – Heavily Subscribed

I am not sure if Finance Minister P Chidambram is awake @ 1:00 AM on Feb-7th, but if he is, he would probably be celebrating the confidence FIIs have in his economic policies. I just received the final SMS which said the recently concluded IPO of Power Finance Corp is subscribed 77.24 times.

Foreign Institutional Investors have bid for a whopping 5.68 Billion shares of PFC against the total offering of 117 Million.

The final subscription figures are as below.

Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 57408350 7874596640 137.1681
2 Non Institutional Investors 17222505 840603600 48.8084
3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 40185845 343103680 8.5379

All retail application bids for over 800 shares will get firm allotment of 80 shares. Going by this subscription rate I am wondering if I should apply for the smaller IPOs or not as fate of every application will be decided by lottery.

Indian Bank IPO – Reveiw and Analysis

Indian Bank was the worst bank during the mid 90s through 2000, when the Government of India decided to infuse capital into the bank which operates mostly in Southern India. With the economic boom and support from the Government, the bank has successfully turned around and growing strongly.

Background:
Since restructuring, Indian Bank has done extremely well. It has 1408 branches and 500 other points of presence for banking. It has 1.5 crore customers mostly in the rural and under-privileged urban areas, which is one of the largest market to bank on these days.

Strengths:
Current Account and Savings Account customers account for mere 35% of Bank’s income. Their is more headroom in this segment for Indian Bank to cash on. Almost all the branches are now computerized and 84% of its business is already under Core Banking Solutions platform. The bank has six asset recovery branches and they have been doing well. Any recoveries will directly add to the bank’s bottomline. Gross and Net NPAs of the bank have declined from 5.1% and 1.9% to 3.4% and 1.3% over the last one year.

Concerns:
37% of its income comes from Trasury operations. However, this has decliend from 50% over the past couple of years. It also has large portion of its securities on Available for Sale block and the bank may have to bear mark to market loss as interest rates rise.

Financials:
Indian Bank reporetd a PAT of Rs 333.9 crore for the Half year ending FY2007 an increase of 42% over the corresponding half in the past FY. The Bank has been profitable since 2002. Annualizing the same, Indian Bank conservatively will report a PAT of Rs 670 crores for FY 2007.

IPO Details:
Price Range – Rs 77 to Rs 91
Retail Quota: 23, 206, 500 * 91 = Rs 211 crore. [Expected to subscribe 10 times]
Fully Diluted Equity – Post IPO = Rs 429.77 crore
We expect an EPS of Rs 15 for FY2007. Indian Bank can be compared to Allahabad Bank, OBC, Corporation Bank which are trading at P/E of 8 and 10.

Recommendation:
Indian Bank is also in tie up with other regional banks to cross sell products. The long term road map set by wizards in the Finance Ministry is to merge and consolidate smaller PSU banks where they find synergy and strengthen the financial system of India. We recommend investors to apply and not to SELL immediately on listing as the gains in the next few years will be much higher.

Macquaire Bullish on Sterlite for 12 Months

Macquaire Equity research in its report is bullish on the prospects of Sterlite Industries and puts a 12 month price target of Rs 852 using sum of parts valuation methodology.

Strong 3Q results: Net sales at Rs68.1bn grew 94% driven by all-round volume growth and higher LME prices. EBITDA at Rs29.5bn grew 215%. Net profit at Rs12.9bn grew 225%.

Zinc – the prime contributor: The zinc business contributed around 67% of net profits and we expect this to continue with our forecast of higher zinc prices and 50% expected capacity expansion.

Aluminium – huge volume growth: With the faster-than-expected stabilisation of its 250kt new smelter, this subsidiary has seen growth of 309% in its operating profits to Rs5.4bn. We expect this business to continue its stellar performance with our forecast of lower alumina prices.

Copper – peaking out: The company realised TC/RCs of 34.8c/lbs for this quarter, driving operating profits to grow 58% to Rs4.5bn. We expect TC/RCs to drop to around 16c/lbs and estimate profits to fall sharply by 50% from next quarter onwards. However, we expect 30% volume growth to lower the impact somewhat.

JV Vedanta alumina refinery on track: The 1mt alumina refinery is expected to be commissioned by March 2007 and will add to profitability in FY08.

Sterlite is expected to to maintain its high profitability, even with our falling forecast for all metal prices. Macquaire expects a recovery in zinc prices, earnings upgrades, visibility on the ADS offering and its purchase of residual stakes in HZ IN from the government to drive the stock up.

Attractive valuations: Sterlite is one of the fastest growing diversified base metals company, while the stock is trading at just 7x PER, which is around 30% discount to its peers globally. We expect this anomaly to correct. Macquaire sets a 12 month target of Rs 852.00 based on a sum of parts methodology.