Reliance Ambani Vs DLF Singh – Corporate War

With every hour passing by, hectic lobbying and meetings are underway in the financial streets of Dalal Street, Mumbai.

At one end of the spectrum is Reliance – Mukesh Ambani who is rumored to be all determined to derail the IPO of DLF Realty. On the other end is Rajeev Singh who wants his father to be the Richest Indian by listing their flagship Real Estate company – DLF.

Corporate Rivalry is nothing new to Reliance and Mukesh Ambani. It dates back to the days of Bombay Dyeing Vs Sr. Ambani in 1980s.

Then in early 1990s, a stock broker by name Harshad Mehta unseated India’s leading industrialist, Dhirubhai Ambani to become the Richest Indian and the Highest Tax Payer. Result – Ambani’s 3rd son, now chief of Reliance SEZ, Anand Jain engineered a trap for Harshad Mehta in Stock Market. When Harshad came to compromise with Dhirubhai, he was the only Indian to drive a Toyota Lexus which caught Anil Ambani’s attention and Harshad readily handed over the keys to Anil Ambani saying “It’s all yours”. [Read The Polyester Price – HOUSEKEEPING SECRETS Page 239]

Then in 2000, Dot Com Boom, it is rumored that Reliance group engineered the fall in Wipro stock which had made Azim Premji the richest Indian and 5th Richest person in the world.

Dec-2006: It is rumored that Reliance- Mukesh Ambani led the debacle of Cairn India IPO. Cairn is a global energy giant. Their was a last minute withdrawal of few large blocks of bidding in the Cairn IPO and underwriters had to make up for it. Cairn directly competes with Reliance Oil and Gas.

June-2007: Rajeev Singh son of DLF’s founder Kushpal Singh is all determined to list his father’s company and crown him the richest Indian. DLF directly competes with MukeshAmbani’s dream project in Haryana – Reliance SEZ. Also Mukesh being an industrialist and wealth creator doesn’t want a land lord to take his crown of being the richest Indian.

DLF is going out of the way to pay hefty commission to greedy Stock Brokers to make their clients apply for the issue. While several brokerage houses have come out with report that DLF issue is expensive. [Silent Operator on Dalal Street is believed to be a close confident of Mukesh Ambani and their firm is amongst the top 3 BRLMs in India. However, for DLF IPO they gave up because of the differences in pricing. ]

Updating:
After the Issue, DLF is likely to float a JV with some foreign company for Real Estate Investment Trust [REIT], which will give DLF the bargaining power and also Billions of Dollars in cash. This will push Mukesh Ambani at the receiving end in SEZ and Real Estate projects. But Mukesh is not a guy who will sit quiet, We’ll keep you informed as we get more information.

Nelcast IPO Subscribed 7.36 Times

The IPO of Nelcast which closed for subscription this evening was subscribed 7.36 time according to a fax received just a while ago.

Here is the breakup of subscription.

Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 2175000 24411780 11.2238

2 Non Institutional Investors 652500 604740 0.9268

3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 1522500 6991290 4.5920

All Retail Individual Investor’s application for more than 150 shares will get firm allotment of at least 30 shares. Good Luck and keep checking back for more information on basis of allotment and grey market pricing.

Real Estate Industry Reports

In the wake of Mega DLF Real Estate IPO, we at Dalal Street Business felt that it is of utmost importance to educate the Indian investor on how Real Estate has matured as a Industry but still with lot of issues.

Due to DLF-IPO Scam in 2006, the promoters of DLF get a Zero on Transparency issues.

How DLF Cheated Small Investors – Part -1

The DLF IPO Scam on Small Investors – Part 2

Over period of time various Research Houses have recommended various Stocks because of Land Bank saga. JeeZ!!! Also, don’t forget the hype which Udayan and Mitali create on CNBC TV 18 on Land Bank Stories, which is utter non-sense. This is no FUC*ING Bollywood. We are here to create some serious wealth and build the Indian economy.

Days are not far from the impending correction in Global Equities as suggested by some J P Morgan Analyst in early Jan-07 [I forget his name, but he is a Desi] Here are some of the Research Reports by very good institutions. We don’t care for third rate brokerage houses like Anand Rathi, Karvy, Religare, Anagram etc.

[All the following reports are PDF, Right click on the link, choose “Save As” and download them]

Also read on how to value Indian real estate stocks. Keep your fingers crossed until our research team comes out with its recommendation on DLF IPO.

MSP Steel & Power, Surana Industries Results

MSP Steel & Power reported net profit of Rs 9.98 crore in the quarter ended March 2007 as against net loss of Rs 0.78 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2006. Sales rose 119.84% to Rs 69.38 crore in the quarter ended March 2007 as against Rs 31.56 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2006. For the full year, net profit rose 1735.45% to Rs 20.19 crore in the year ended March 2007 as against Rs 1.10 crore during the previous year ended March 2006. Sales rose 149.61% to Rs 210.52 crore in the year ended March 2007 as against Rs 84.34 crore during the previous year ended March 2006.

Net profit of Surana Industries declined 17.86% to Rs 9.38 crore in the quarter ended March 2007 as against Rs 11.42 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2006. Sales rose 10.88% to Rs 277.39 crore in the quarter ended March 2007 as against Rs 250.17 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2006. For the full year, net profit rose 31.19% to Rs 30.75 crore in the year ended March 2007 as against Rs 23.44 crore during the previous year ended March 2006. Sales rose 23.88% to Rs 774.88 crore in the year ended March 2007 as against Rs 625.52 crore during the previous year ended March 2006.

Citi Upgrades Punj Lloyd to BUY

You are reading this first here…
Citirgroup Analyst, Venkatesh Bala, in a report released just few seconds ago has upgraded Punj Lloyd Ltd to a BUY with a price target of Rs 305. Our Dalal Street Research Analyst had recommended Punj Lloyd in December-06 with a price target of Rs 300 [Post-split] So you notice the difference between our quality research and research coming from world’s top brokerage house ? We were the first one to do it 🙂

Citi in its report has also upgraded the stock from Risky- SELL to Low Risk – BUY. Punj is now pre-qualified for larger/more complex projects. Indications of this scale-up are already visible (average order is up from US$30mn to US$100mn in FY07 and likely to go up to US$200mn).

At the end of FY07 Punj Lloyd had the third largest order backlog of Rs159bn in Engineering & Construction sectors after BHEL (Rs550bn) and L&T (Rs369bn).

Earnings revisions of 20% in FY08E and 21% in FY09E. A rolling forward of our target P/E multiple to 23x FY09E, from 23x FY08E earlier. This is well supported by an earnings CAGR of 38% over FY07-10E with RoEs expanding from 17% in FY08E to 25% in FY10E.

Despite L&T being a more diversified and established player with a market cap which is ~ 10x that of Punj Lloyd, Citi uses a similar multiple for both companies given Punj Lloyd’s superior earnings CAGR of 38% over FY07-10E coming off a smaller base vis-a-vis 31% for L&T.

Nelcast Review and Recommendation

Nelcast is dependent on the auto industry ramping up of exports and increasing machining are required to maintain growth as domestic users face a slowdown.

Right now, Neelcast exports about 9% of its sales Globally, export of castings to developed nations is on the rise on account of rising costs, lack of skilled foundry people and environmental restrictions in these markets. The company plans to increase its focus on exports and become the preferred full service supplier to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the globe. The export target is 30% of sales by 2010.

Strengths:
The composition of machined castings is about 10% of production. This is to be increased to about 20%-25% over the next two years so as to improve margin.

Weakness:
More than 70% of revenue is derived from the HCV and tractor segments. Both these user industries are set to slow down significantly in FY 2008 when the company’s substantial capacity expansion is under implementation.

Ancillaries to domestic auto and auto components sectors often have to maintain their prices despite rising raw material cost due to a limited number of clients. Margin is down from 11.9% in FY 2004 to 8.9% in FY 2006, though it jumped to 13.4% in FY 2007.

Valuation:
At a price band of Rs 195 – 219, Nelcast’s P/E works out to 17.2 – 19.3 times FY 20007 earning on post-diluted equity. Industry peer Ennore Foundries is trading at a P/E of 19.0.

Investors with some risk appetite may apply at Cut-Off.