Tech Mahindra Disappointing Results + Stock Drops

BT Revenue Disappoints Tepid sales; margin above expectations – Revenue grew ~7% qoq to US$211mn – below expectation of US$218mn. Revenue in INR terms was flat at Rs.8.76b. EBITDA margin declined 340bps (vs. our expectation of 410bps decline). Lower taxes led to net profit of Rs.1.7b – marginally ahead in spite of lower sales growth.

Tech Mahindra’s consolidated net profit declined 13.1% to Rs 170.30 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q4 March 2007. Revenue rose 0.2% to Rs 876.30 crore over March 2007.

The stock is down to Rs 1428. However, its a good BUY on decline.

Tata Tea Downgraded by Citi

Citigroup Research downgraded the price target of Tata Tea Ltd after a disappointing quarter. Consolidated EBITDA margins declined by 340bps due to high advertising and promotional expenses. Tata Tea’s consolidated revenues grew by 28% driven primarily by its Eight O’ Clock acquisition and strong branded sales in its domestic business, which grew 18%. Profitability was, however, hit due to a higher tax rate and higher interest charges. Net profit declined 3.5% to Rs44.5m

Cutting FY08E and FY09E earnings estimates by 15.5% and 3.5% to reflect lower than expected 1QFY08 results. Citi reduced EBITDA margin assumptions building in higher ad-spend for Tetley. Consequently, to reflect lower earnings, Citi has cut target price to Rs1045 (Rs1150 earlier) retaining our target P/E multiple of 15x mid-FY09E earnings .

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BUY KPIT Cummins – Citi Research

KPIT Cummins has declared results inline with expectations from Citigroup Research Analysts. Citi has recommended a BUY with a price-target of Rs 180. Prabhudas Liladhar had recommended a BUY on this stock last November.

KPIT has secured $55 Million, one of the largest BPO contracts in the offshore space. The company reported revenue of Rs.1.35bn –- 3.8% qoq growth (expectations of Rs.1.3bn) and net profit declined 10% qoq to Rs.127mn (exp. of Rs.122mn).

Revenue guidance was upwardly revised to US$145-148mn (from US$143-144mn earlier) due to better visibility while net profit guidance was downwardly revised to Rs.630-680mn (from Rs.700-730mn earlier) due to stronger INR.

KPIT is expected to report an EPS of Rs 7.91 and Rs 10.97 for FY08 and FY09, a growth of 39% for each year over its last year. 12-month target price is Rs180 based on 16x our FY09E EPS. Target multiple is derived by applying a ~15% discount to multiple for peer Satyam Computers.

GMR Infrastructure ban on derivatives contracts

The derivative contracts in the underlying of GMR Infrastructure have crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit and are currently in the ban period on NSE.

The current market price of Rs 868 discounts its FY 2007 EPS of Rs 0.09 by a PE multiple of 9644. [Highly Overvalued Stock – SELL and Book Profits]

GMR Infrastructure reported net profit of Rs 12.37 crore on sales of Rs 22.01 crore in Q4 March 2007.

Net profit declined 91.89% to Rs 2.88 crore in the year ended March 2007 (FY 2007) as against Rs 35.55 crore in the year ended March 2006 (FY 2006). Sales slipped 41.9% to Rs 33.39 crore in FY 2007 (Rs 57.44 crore).

The company will unveil Q1 June 2007 results on 27 July 2007. Is GMR the new ENRON of India ?

Power Finance an Undeperformer – Kotak Securities

Power Finance Corporation’s [PFC] first quarter results look terrific at a glance but when you look at the finer details you will see that other income contributed to a large portion of the bottom line.

Kotak Securities has an Underperformer rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 125. CMP of PFC is Rs 195.

PFC has reported stable spread of 1.9% in 1Q08 and 4Q07. PFC’s ALM position seems comfortable in the near term. riable rate loans (with three-year reset) from FY2005 will be re-priced about 2-3% higher in FY2008; About 61% of PFC’s assets are floating as compared to 16% of its liabilities. This will help the company in a rising interest rate scenario.

PFC’s tax rate in 1Q07 was higher at 41% on account of prior period income tax demand. Consequently, reported PAT was subdued in that period. The 1Q08 effective tax rate was 32% in line with long-term trends.

PFC is expected to report an EPS of Rs 11.2 for FY2008 and Rs 12.8 for FY2009. Dalal Street Analyst advises Investors to Book Profits at CMP of Rs 198 as the stock looks expensive.