Buy ITC – Solid Results – JP Morgan and Citi

JP Morgan and Citigroup have upgraded ITC to a BUY previously from hold with a price target of Rs 195.

After 40% underperformance over the last 12 months, risk-reward looks favorable. Investors are focusing too much on cigarette volumes; we estimate that even if volumes were to decline by 5%, cigarette EBIT would increase 8% in FY08. ITC’s price hikes are heavily loaded in favor of its mid segment brands (~65% of volumes)

Target price increase to Rs195 from Rs130 reflects 1) rolling forward target P/E from FY08E to FY09E, given that we are approaching mid FY08E and expect valuations to start reflecting FY09E; 2) increase target multiple from 15x to 20x, toward the higher end of historical trading bands.

ITC Q1 Profit stands at Rs 783 crore up from Rs 652 crore a year ago [Up 20.2%]. Sales up from Rs 2850 crore to Rs 3325 crore.

Bears Hug Dalal Street

With weak international markets [US Housing Data was the dampener], Dalal Street Bears are in action. Within the first 5 minutes of Trading the BSE Sensex was down 350 points.

HDFC Bank, BHEL, Tata Motors, SBI and Reliance Energy are the top losers in the SENSEX. All the SENSES stocks are hammered and positions unwound. Accordint to Hitesh Chotalia’s analysis all the support levels for the day are broken and the SENSEX is currently at 15,450.

All the Indian Indices are in RED. A Blood Bath on the opening day of August Futures.

Nifty is down 110 Points
Nifty Jr is down 180 Points
Nifty Bank is down 170 Points
Midcap CNX is down 140 Points
IT CNX is down 101 Points

We wonder what will be the fate of IPOs like IVR Prime where extremely wise men invested because they couldn’t read the P/E and other financials of the company 🙂

Update at 12:00 Noon:
BSE SENSEX is down 500 Points. All the sensex stocks are in Red except ITC and Ranbaxy Labs. We recommended a BUY on ITC this morning. Is this is temporary correction ? Well depends on the US Data. If its just a temporary slump, its ok as Dow had also hit an all time high. However if you can see cracks appearing in the US Data, then money will flow out of Stocks. I am sure Wall Street Analysts are burning the midnight oil to analyze their course of action for Firday.

Tags: , , ,

Maruti + MRF Results

Maruti Udyog’s net profit rose 35.1% to Rs 499.60 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Net sales rose 25.7% to Rs 3930.82 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Both top line and bottom line exceeded market expectations. Recall Analysts were skeptical and negative about the performance of Auto companies.

MRF’s net profit rose 420% to Rs 42.5 crore in Q3 June 2007 over Q3 June 2006. Sales moved up 13.93% to Rs 1,133.43 crore in Q3 June 2007 over Q3 June 2007. MRF has declared interim dividend at the rate of Rs 3 per share.

PNB + Canara Bank – Modest Quarter

Punjab National Bank’s [PNB] profits are ahead of our 10% growth expectations, but qualitatively, it remains a modest quarter. Margins continue to face pressures, cost increases are also relatively high and overall profitability has been supported by provisioning write-backs.

Falling margins and high costs pressure overall profitability; excluding trading gains, profit expansion is likely to be lower still. PNB’s well above industry and 400bp+ margins were always likely to erode; however, the erosion appears to be coming in a rate environment that should have bolstered PNB’s margins, given its balance-sheet structure. PNB is expected to report an EPS of Rs 60.08 below Dalal Street Analysts consensus of Rs 64.49. Stock price target is Rs 615.

Canara Bank 1Q08 profits up 26% yoy, 9% higher than our expectations. Qualitatively though, they fall short, with a drop in NIIs the primary and a large disappointment. Margins dipped almost 50bp; well below industry levels, its own historical lows, and in a quarter that saw little growth. The asset book itself provides comfort; limited asset deterioration over quarter, continuing asset recoveries, increase in coverage levels, and loan growth moderation to sub 20% levels.

Canara Bank is expected to report an EPS of Rs 35.86 for FY2008 and the stock price target is Rs 300.

Citi Upgrades Kotak Mahindra Bank

Citigroup Research has upgraded the price target of Kotak Mahindra Bank to Rs 825 but a bit too late. Kotak has swiftly moved up from Rs 640 to Rs 730 on expectations of better results.

Kotak which is also into Retail Stock Trading business had made all its clients BUY their company Futures ahead of the results. This is a matter of great concern and SEBI should investigate this matter ?

Coming back to Citi’s analysis, 40% yoy profit growth, but 7% below their estimate. KTKM’s loan book is up 56% yoy (4% qoq) and remains diversified across consumer loan segments, with almost no asset stress. Margins remain 5%+ in the face of funding challenges, though broking volumes are only flat.

Target price of Rs825 is based on EVA methodology. KTKM’s relatively high share of securities fees suggests a valuation benchmark of an investment bank. Kotak is expected to report an EPS of Rs 19.92 for FY2008 and Rs 25.46 for FY2009.

Ranbaxy – GSK agree to dismiss US Litigation

Ranbaxy Laboratories has reached an agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to stipulate a dismissal of their US litigation with regard to Valtrex (Valacyclovir Hydrochloride tablets). The lawsuit in the US was related to GSK’s US Patent No 4,957,924, covering Valacyclovir Hydrochloride and its use in the treatment of herpes virus infections.

Under the agreement, the company will enter the US market in late 2009 whereby as the first generic, the company will enjoy a 180 days exclusivity. In early February 2007, the company received a final approval from the US FDA to market and manufacture Valacyclovir Hydrochloride tablets.

Company will continue to pursue a strategy to effectively leverage and monetize it’s pipeline of FTF opportunities. The company believes that it has a First-to File (FTF) status on approximately 20 Para IV ANDA filings representing a market size of – US $ 26 billion valued at innovator prices.