Dalal Street :: India Equity Research, Investment Analysis

WPI Inflation Decelerates Below 5%, Lowest in 41 Months

May 14, 20132 min read

The provisional headline inflation rate (Wholesale Price Index, WPI) decelerated to 4.89% YoY in April 2013 vs. 5.96% YoY in March 2013. This is the first time since Nov 2009 that WPI inflation has decelerated below 5%. The seasonally adjusted WPI index declined by 0.3% MoM in April (vs. decline of 0.5% MoM in March based on provisional data). The headline inflation in April was below consensus expectations of 5.45%. The deceleration in headline inflation was mainly due to a high base effect, deceleration in food prices (mainly vegetable prices) and lower global commodity prices.

The final inflation for February 2013 was revised (more…)

Equity Research

BoFA Merrill Downgrades FY 2014 Sensex Earnings Estimates

April 3, 2013April 18, 20202 min read

It is important that we always tick to the fundamentals of Investing – Earnings. Markets tend to rise / overshoot based on surplus liquidity in other parts of world chasing growth stocks. Now what happens when their is no Growth ? Investors Chase Value. In this backdrop and the severe paralysis on the Reforms front by a massively corrupt UPA Government squandering tax payers money on social causes for vote bank, Indian companies are expected to grow lower than expectations in FY 2014.

FY 2014 Earnings Expectations of SENSEX
The earnings Expectations of Sensex for FY 2014 from various Research entities in Jan / Feb 2013 is as follows, (more…)

Equity Research

Stock Picking – Back to Fundamentals

March 26, 20132 min read

We’ll shortly write an in depth research on the Indian Equity Strategy and the way forwards. However, until then since the market has substantially corrected, rejig your portfolio on the basis of Quality of the Stock.

Equity Stock Picking has changed from Momentum and Growth back to Fundamentals. Buying stocks of companies with high FCF, high ROE, low debt, low beta and low capex to depreciation has (more…)

Economy, Markets and Macro Views

Reading Between Lines RBI Governor Speech in London

March 15, 2013April 18, 20202 min read

The Indian StockMarket Turned Buoyant as RBI Governor gave some hints of Rate Cuts and Satisfcation over the Budget. We commend RBI Governor’s Daredevil steps not to bow down to illiterate Politicians of India and taking a stand which is in the interest of the nation so far. Here are the key highlights of the Speech @ London School of Economics.

Inflation
If the domestic petroleum sector was a free market and if global prices passed through to domestic prices, demand would arguably have declined in response to rising prices. (more…)

Breaking Corporate India Earnings News

What Happens if HDFC / ICICI / Axis Bank Have Really Laundered Politicians Money ?

March 14, 2013March 14, 20132 min read

Investigative Blogger Cobrapost.com has put up video clippings alleging that the branches of three private banks — HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank—were willing to help its reporter launder money, offer lockers to stack cash, and invest these funds in insurance products.

The Board of Managements of these banks are currently investigating the matter and have issued a statement that they are concerned about the allegations and that they have well-defined Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti- Money Laundering policies in place. (more…)

Equity Research

Goldman Sachs Upgrades India to Overweight NIFTY Target 7000

March 8, 20132 min read

Global Institutional Investor and Mover and shaker of the Indian Market, Goldman Sachs has upgraded India to OVERWEIGHT in a report released just a while ago. GS likes Indian equities on both a 3 and 12-month basis.

The increase in corporate tax surcharge in the Union Budget would potentially have muted impact on overall earnings. The 130 bp hike in corporate taxes would potentially lower aggregate EPS by only 2%. Earnings revisions and sentiment have been weak lately, but we expect the cycle to improve.

India currently trades at 13.4x forward 12-month P/E and 2.6x book value. Relative to the rest of region, India is also (more…)

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Reading Between Lines RBI Governor Speech in London

What Happens if HDFC / ICICI / Axis Bank Have Really Laundered Politicians Money ?

Goldman Sachs Upgrades India to Overweight NIFTY Target 7000