Congress Governments Policy Failure & Corruption Puts RBI in Tough Spot as Rupee Hits Life Time Low

Indian Rupee Free Fall Against USDThe Stagflation [Stagnancy of Reforms since Scams Broke Out + Inflation] prevalent in India, accelerated by Populist measures such as Free Food Security Bill for Votes [Costing the Nation Rs 125,000 Crore every Year] has put additional pressure on the Indian Rupee as it hit an all time low of Rs 61.53 against USD since independence in 1947. Indian Central Bankers, RBI is busy as it is caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea and here is an excerpt of their strategies to protect Indians from the vested politics of Central Government.

Limited FX intervention RBI will intervene only to provide liquidity to FOREX markets and not to influence its direction. The central bank thinks (more…)

Food Security Bill & Vote Bank Politics – Costly Affair

The Food Security Bill passed by means of an Ordinance, without even tabling in the Parliament as it would attract Debate and Press Coverage on How it will Drain the Indian Central Treasury by over Rs 125,000 Cr every year will prove expensive for the Nation as it is evident that the Corrupt Congress Government wants Votes in the five state elections in Q4-2013 and general elections in mid-2014. (more…)

Mahindra and Mahindra Finance – Strength in Rural India

Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services – MMFSL is a dominant player in rural vehicle finance market. MMFSL has clear advantage vs competition, in that, most competitors have single / fewer product (vs MMFSL’s diversified product offering) or are regionally focused (vs MMFSL’s pan India). Finally, despite slower (~6-10%) underlying volume growth across products. Expect MMFSL to show healthy AUM growth (~30%) in FY14, as it gains market share, with larger distribution in the semi-urban, rural segments and a close-to-customer model and strategic tie-up with other OEM.

Asset Quality Policies like linking a part of employees’ pay to asset quality, (more…)

Indian Economy – Slow Reforms, Reluctant to Recover

HSBC - India Reforms SlowThe government of India has pushed through numerous reform measures over the past nine months. However, Policy implementation and announcements have tapered off recently and could slow even further. For example, have a look at the Failure of the FDI Policy in Indian Multi Brand Retail

HSBC cut India’s growth forecast for FY2014 to 5.5% (vs 6.0%) and FY2015 to 6.6% (vs 7.1%). They expect further progress on reforms, it will only materialize slowly. Moreover, the global recovery is likely to come later. The recovery (more…)

Murthy’s Return to Infosys, What are analysts Recommendations ?

Narayana Murthy (NRN), Co-Founder Infosys assumed charge as Executive Chairman of Infosys assisted by his son Rohan Murthy, tweaking all the required amendments for the Infosys Rule Book. The Stock is up 7% in early trade and her si what various Research Analysts have to say about the return of NRN.

Mitali Ghosh and Kunal Tayal at BOFA-Merrill Lynch said, (more…)

Market Rally on Rate Cut Expectations – Will Earnings Follow ?

Indian Market RallyWith the the fall in global commodity prices over the past month, investors have been adding to their positions in India. Majority of investors were slightly overweight India.

Rate cut the Only Silver Lining
The current rally in the market could be attributed as investors position themselves for a faster than consensus rate cut led by (a) inflation falling faster than expected. The WPI data today at just under 5% has borne out this view (b) falling oil and gold prices helping ease the current account deficit worries (c) expectations that the change of RBI Governor would lead to faster rate cuts. Our analysis indicates that there is no clear (more…)

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