Rollover Analysis

As we near the end of F&O settlement, the market wide rollover stands at 43.47% on T-2 day as compared to 36.47% in the previous expiry. The Nifty November rollover stands at 38.96% compared to 44.98% in the October expiry and 41.76% in the September expiry on T-2 day. The Put-Call ratio stands at 0.84. Open interest addition of nearly 5000 contracts was seen in Call options of the strike price 2700 and 2800.

Top Sector Rollover stands as follows, [in %ge]
Capital Goods 54.86
Realty 51.88
Power 50.50
Banking 50.04
Cement 48.07

Transport at 23.90% and media at 30.84% have witnessed the lowest Rollover.

HDFC + HDFC Bank Reverse Merger – Insight

There has been a whisper doing the rounds for quite some time now that HDFC will go for a reverse merger with its child – HDFC Bank. However, the time seems to be right if RBI meets some relaxations sought by HDFC.

HDFC has always taken a stand that a merger with their banking associate, HDFC Bank, would make sense only if reserve requirements (Statutory Liquidity Ratio and Cash Reserve Ratio) were lower or/and if they were granted some exemptions/flexibility in meeting these requirements. (more…)

Changing Growth Engine – CS

India’s economic growth engine has not stayed the same for long in the past. Credit Suisse expects investments to no longer be the growth engine from now on. Exports, somewhat surprisingly, could be relatively the fastest growing economic sector for the next few quarters. But why does this Change frequently ? The cyclicality in the savings rate and the frequently recurring twin deficits and profit-oriented private sector are key reasons why India’s growth characteristics change constantly.

Because of the ongoing crisis and wealth destruction, investment-driven growth has been derailed, at least for the time being. (more…)

Fortis Healthcare – Turning Around for Healthy Bottomline

Fortis Healthcare has been able to operationally turnaround its largest hospital – Escorts Heart Institute and Surgery Hospital. The management is now focused on steering other newer group hospitals to a steady state performance. Escorts acquisition also helped the management gain the required experience and they are now focused on smaller-scale acquisitions with a bed size of
around 100-150 beds, which in our view is a better strategy. (more…)

Dr Reddys Imitrex Launch to boost Growth

Dr. Reddy’s Labs announced that it has launched the authorized generic version of GlaxoSmithKline’s Imitrex (Sumatriptan Succinate) tablets in the United States. Dr. Reddy’s is the first company to launch an authorized generic version of Imitrex tablets in the US market.

Imitrex, prescribed for migraine attacks, had U.S. sales of $1.3 bn in 2007 as per IMS. This launch is expected to drive 25% sales growth for Dr Reddy’s for FY09E. This would help Dr Reddy’s to at least maintain the trend sales growth rate that we have seen in the first half of this year.

Sales from Imitrex could contribute around 3.2% of the 25% sales growth and any delay by Ranbaxy to launch the drug will drive Dr. Reddy’s sales higher.

Dabur + Fem Care Acquistion – Synergic Fit but Expensive Pricing

Dabur India acquired a 72.15% stake in Fem Care Pharma from the existing promoters for Rs2.04bn in an all cash deal. Overall contribution of skin care products to Dabur’s sales is less than 4% and this acquisition would help in nearly doubling it. Besides the well entrenched Fem brand this acquisition provides manufacturing base in Nasik and Baddi (enjoying tax benefits). It also has presence in GCC/Middle East markets which could be expanded. FEMC’s direct reach of 25,000 parlors will provide Dabur with a new distribution channel for its own products – the other channels should have some degree of overlap. (more…)