Grasim Industries – Review

Grasim Industries cut VSF prices by 7-8%; The Co’s recent price cut follows a 3-4% price cut in Nov-08. For FY10E, we expect a further 5% drop in VSF prices. Risk to FY10E remains on the downside due to sluggish textile demand & VSF’s expensive pricing vs polyester (PSF) & cotton. In the short-term (for 4Q), however, earnings will be cushioned by drastic drop in sulphur prices (down ~90% from peak. (more…)

Marginal Change in Vehicle Finance Rates

It is always nice to read CRR, SLR, Repo Rate etc going down. However, the ground realities are lot different and to know what they are, we conducted a channel check and found that there has been no impact / marginal of the CRR / Repo cuts for the commercial vehicles segment. The interest rates across most financiers are in the range of 15%-18%, with large truck operators getting at the lower end of the range while (more…)

Auto Sales Weak in Dec-08

Dec sales were weak across segments as customers curtailed discretionary spending. Among the segments, car sales picked up m/m driven by attractive discounts offered by manufacturers, but two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales were lackluster.

Government announced 4% cut in excise duty on automobiles. Cars, two-wheelers and CV manufacturers have passed on excise cut benefits to the consumers to lift flagging consumer demand. But there is no significant uplift in the demand yet.

In the two wheeler segment, Bajaj Auto’s domestic volumes declined by 53% Y/Y. Hero Honda also disappointed (-10% Y/Y, vs. expectations of -5-7% Y/Y). TVS’ domestic volumes also declined by 13% Y/Y.

Maruti Suzuki’s domestic sales were down 11% Y/Y driven by 7% Y/Y decline in A2 segment volumes.

M&M Dec sales declined 29% YoY; driven by weak UV sales (-22% YoY) and tractor sales (-27% YoY). Scorpio sales declined by 44% Y/Y and non Scorpio sales declined by 15% Y/Y. Domestic tractor sales declined by 26% YoY reflecting sharp slowdown in retail demand.

Tata Motors domestic MHCV sales declined 69% Y/Y. Passenger car sales declined by 31% Y/Y.

Era Infra bags four major orders

Era Infra Engineering has bagged four major projects in the areas of Calicut, Delhi and Punjab.

The first project involves the construction of a mega hostel at NIIT from National Institute of Technology, Calicut. The deal is worth Rs 88.78 crore. The scope of work includes civil works, plumbing and sanitary wares, electrical installation work, fire hydrant and alarm works.

The second order worth Rs 73.74 crore is for the construction of a 200 bed hospital at Kokiwala Bagh in Delhi. The work includes construction of OD, wards, services, hostel building for nurses and RMO including internal water supply and sanitary installation and electrical works.

Another order worth Rs 71.36 crore awarded by the Punjab government involves the setting up the Guru Gobind Singh medical college, senate campus and academic campus for Baba Farid University of health sciences.

The fourth order is for the development of an athletics training venue for Commonwealth Games to be held in 2010 at Chhatrasal Stadium in New Delhi. The deal valued at Rs 60.26 crore and includes civil works, fire fighting and public address system, fire alarms, internal and external electrical works, lifts and HVAC.

In a related development, FreePress is reporting that Government may soon announce a Rs 100,000 crore Infrastructure development rescue package to boost the sagging economy.

BoP risks overdone + Deficit Ok – Merrill

India is, after all, perhaps the only one among the usual suspects to survive without Fed/IMF support. Merrill estimates the FY09 current account deficit at a doable 2.2% of GDP. INR to consolidate around current levels. The INR should also benefit later in the year from stronger risk appetite. The upside, however, is likely bound by a growing policy preference for a weak INR to support exports; combat imported deflation; and recoup ~US$30bn sold in the Indian Equities. (more…)

Inflation Continues to Slide – 6.38%

Inflation for the week ended December 20, 2008 stood at 6.38% as compared to 6.61% reported in the last week as the WPI continued to slide.

The prices of primary articles decreased to 12.07% for week ended December 20, 2008 as compared to 12.15% for the preceding week. The prices of fuel items declined by 0.66% for the week as compared to an decrease of 0.18% in the preceding week driven by fall in administered as well as non administered fuel prices.

The inflation for manufactured products stood at a lower 6.84% for the week, as compare to 7.0% for the preceding week. Amongst the manufactured articles, the prices of metal products, textile products and wood & wood products rose the most, by 12.35% yoy, 10.66% yoy and 9.77% yoy respectively.