Elections Reults Impact on Markets

How to read the election numbers is probably the most important question on Investor’s mind. Here are some combinations and its impact on the market.

The best case with a negligible chance is a scenario where the leading coalition gets over 200 seats. This would be expected to cause the markets to soar immediately and would be good longer term too.

The worst is the scenario where both leading coalitions have less than 160 seats. Bad for equities in the short and long term. (more…)

JSW Steel – Results Cracking – SELL

JSW Steel Sales rose 5% yoy to 1.06m tonnes. FY09 adj PAT fell 44% yoy to Rs9.3bn. JSTL reported standalone PAT of Rs492m. Adjusting for the FCCB buyback & forex gains, net loss for 4Q was Rs258m vs profit of Rs4.4bn in 4QFY08.

4Q EBITDA/t fell to $67 vs $188 last year and $122 in 3QFY09. Even though JSTL had contracted coking coal at $175/t for most of its 4Q off-take (vs $305/t for FY09), the quarter was impacted by significant high-cost opening inventory. ~8% of coking coal contracted at $305/t in FY09 is yet to be lifted and JSTL is in negotiations to spread it over the next 2-3 yrs. (more…)

Exports fall 33%, trade deficit narrows

Merchandise exports fell sharply by 33.3% yoy in March from a 21.7% yoy fall in February, marking a sixth consecutive month of fall in exports. In INR terms, exports contracted by 15% yoy, reflecting the large yoy INR depreciation. On a sequential basis, exports fell 18% mom; seasonally adjusted.

Imports slid sharply by 34.0% yoy in March, compared to the 23.3% yoy fall in February. Non-oil imports fell rapidly by 19% yoy in March, from 10% yoy in February. Oil imports continued to contract by 58% yoy versus a 48% yoy fall in February.

The trade deficit narrowed substantially to US$4 billion versus US$5 billion in February and a peak of US$13 billion in August as the contraction in imports was a tad more rapid than the fall in exports.

HDFC net profit plunges 4.50% in Q4

Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) has announced its financial results for the fourth quarter & year March 31, 2009.

The company has posted a net profit of Rs 733.37 crore in the fourth quarter against a net profit Rs 768.12 crore in the corresponding previous quarter, a dip of around 4.50%. The total income stood at Rs 3,152.44 crore against Rs 2,317.67 crore, registering a growth of 36% on YoY basis.

The company’s net profit for the entire fiscal stood at Rs 2,282.54 crore against Rs 2,436.25 crore in the previous fiscal, a dip of around 6%. The total income stood at Rs 10,992.43 crore against Rs 8,062.80 crore registering a growth of 36% on YoY basis.

The consolidated net profit for the entire fiscal stood at Rs 2,310.50 crore against Rs 2,713.00 crore in the year-ago period, a fall of around 15%. The total income stood at Rs 11,684.23 crore against Rs 8,679.21 crore registering a growth of 34% on YoY basis.

The board of the company has recommended the dividend of 300% i.e. Rs 30 per equity share of Rs 10 each for FY09.

Ranbaxy Labs Nitrofurantoin recall poses additional setback

Over the weekend, Ranbaxy announced the voluntary recall of Nitrofurantoin capsules (Sales of US$4.1 mn and TRx of 0.56 mn units in 2008) from the US market. Ranbaxy believes the recalled drug (an antibiotic for the treatment of urinary tract infections) is “unlikely to produce any serious adverse health effects” implying a Class III FDA classification.

Ranbaxy’s recall of Nitrofurantoin capsules is the second product recall, following the Gabapentin recall in November 2007. In this instance, Ranbaxy (more…)

Best + Worst Performers in the Bear Market Rally

With the Sensex strong 35% rally from the 9th March low, 15 of the BSE-100 stocks in our coverage are within 10% of their 52 week high. As expected in a liquidity driven rally, asset plays, deep cyclicals and highly geared companies dominate the list.

We present to you the best and the Worst Performers in the recent bear market rally starting from March-9th.

Stock: Appreciation in %ge
HDIL 119.3
Deccan Chronicle 118.8
Jaiprakash Associates 97
JSW Steel 93.2
Axis Bank 88.9
Unitech 73.2
Suzlon Energy 73.1
Hindustan Times 72.1
Tata Motors 70.3
Bank of Baroda 68
Pantaloon Retail 67.2
ICICI Bank 67.1 (more…)