BOA Merrill – Sell IT Stocks Pull them Down

BOFA_Merrill Lynch which had already told that Tech sector will be under performer yesterday, has come out with a SELL on Indian IT Sector.

Why does BOA-Merrill Lynch expect FY11 margins to disappoint consensus
expectations ?

They differ from consensus and believe FY11 margins will decline not only because we expect 5% Re/USD appreciation next year but because a) expect wages will recover earlier than pricing and (more…)

Gold touches new record of $1,045 / ounce in New York

Gold futures scaled a new record on concerns that declining currencies will stoke inflation and increase the demand for the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation.

Gold futures soared to a new record of $1,045 an ounce in intra-day trades in New York, breaching the previous record of $1,033.90 in March 2008. The December delivery contract settled at $1,039.70 per ounce, up 2.2%, or $21.90, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On the National Stock Exchange in India GoldBees is up 1% in morning Trade – INR 1564 / Gram.

Spot gold jumped 2.6% to a record $1,043.78. The metal has gained 18% this year.

Gold held in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, touched an all-time high of 1,134 metric tonnes seen on June 1 and was at 1,098.07 tonnes on Monday.

Silver futures for December delivery surged 4.6%, or 76 cents, to $17.295 an ounce on in New York. The metal climbed to a 13-month high of $17.69 on September 17 and is up 53% this year.

Sell SENSEX on Better Earnings – BofA Merrill

BOFA- Merrill Lynch says that the earnings season for quarter ended Sept 30, 2009 will be good despite headline Sensex net profit showing a drop of 18%. Firstly, the metals companies distort growth. Ex-metals, the EBIDTA growth is near 20% and net profit growth 9.4%.

Earnings will surprise estimates and will see some upgrades. However, current stock prices seem to factor in lot of the positive surprises with valuations (more…)

Analysis – Grasim Samruddhi Cement Restructuring

Grasim Industries announced a 3-step process for consolidating its cement business with its 55% owned cement subsidiary Ultratech, which will create India’s largest cement company with capacity of 49 mtpa (FY10E). As part of this consolidation, Grasim will:
1) transfer its cement division to Samruddhi Cement, a wholly owned subsidiary.
2) Issue shares of Samruddhi Cement to the shareholders of Grasim in the ratio of 1:1. This would reduce Grasim’s stake in Samruddhi from 100% to 65%, with the balance owned by Grasim shareholders. Management expects Samruddhi to be listed by 4QFY10. (more…)

Inflation double digit WPI inflation by Mar ’10

For the week ending 19 Sep ’09, headline inflation (the wholesale price index, WPI) stood at 0.83%. Inflation for the week ending 25 Jul-09 was revised to -0.71% (from -1.58%).

In a shocking move, all major constituents of the WPI index – primary, fuel and manufacturing products – registered a w-o-w rise.

Government Blind Spectator to Food Inflation – Food inflation continues to move up. Price rises were noticeable for vegetables, egg, meat and fish. Food grains, pulses and fruit prices witnessed a w-o-w fall.

India’s monetary authorities face a quandary. On the one hand, signals for monetary tightening are everywhere: strong pick-up in WPI inflation, double digit CPI inflation and significant liquidity overhang. On the other, a subdued global growth outlook, lack of strong domestic growth and the government’s large market borrowing program point towards maintaining an easy monetary policy. While we expect the RBI to start tightening much ahead of the G-3 (Euro area, Japan and the US), the tightening is unlikely to start before late FY10. In the meanwhile, in a bid to manage inflationary expectations, the RBI’s communications are likely to turn increasingly hawkish