Recent Posts

11

Sensex and Nifty Company Analysis / Nifty FY 2023-24 EPS

« Last post by resh on November 03, 2022, 12:29:57 PM »

Anjali Verma of Philip Capital has the following View

Nifty is currently trading at 19x-19.5x FY24 EPS of Rs 950-920; we have been estimating FY24 EPS in the range of Rs 930-950 since March 2022 when consensus was Rs 1050. Currently, we retain our neutral stance on Indian equities; downside risk will open as global monetary tightening continues, triggering global growth/earnings slowdown. In case global slowdown is avoided, India equities will trend higher.

Gautam Duggad of Motilal Oswal said,

Nifty EPS for FY23E has been increased by 0.5% to INR821 (from INR817 earlier) driven by Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, HCL Tech and ICICI Bank. FY24E EPS was also raised by 0.4% to INR989 (from INR984 earlier)

12

Sensex and Nifty Company Analysis / TCS - Research Recommendation

« Last post by resh on July 09, 2022, 07:32:55 PM »

Ashwin Mehta and Vamsi Krishna of Ambit Capital Views on TCS,

We remain below consensus on growth/margins and see risks to consensus margins on supply-side pressures and discretionary cost reversals. Broad-based growth underperformance versus Infosys/Accenture over 11-12 quarters and TCS not being immune to sectoral growth/margin moderation do not justify current valuation premiums. Stock valuations of 28.4x 1-year forward P/E imply USD revenue CAGR of 11.7% at average EBIT margin of 24.5%. Lower TP to Rs2,865 (vs Rs2,950 earlier), implying ~23x 1-year forward EPS upto Jun-24E of Rs124.7. Target Price Rs 2865

13

India Stocks and Shares / Nifty Market Views

« Last post by resh on July 09, 2022, 07:17:43 PM »

Sunil Singhania's Views, [Abakkus Investment]

The last 2-3 months have been quite challenging for equity investors globally. Indian equities have also seen a sharp drawdown across the board and slightly more in the mid and small cap space. Apart from the macro economic concerns of rising inflation, rising interest rates, fear of growth slowdown and pressure on corporate profit margins; the record selling from FPIs has also been a major cause of this deep correction...

However, we would recommend that investors make fresh investments over the next couple of months. While returns won’t be linear, we are confident that healthy mid teen benchmark earnings CAGR over FY22-25 will eventually get reflected in market returns.

14

Trading Ideas / Technical Analysis before Buy / Sell Stock

« Last post by resh on July 08, 2022, 04:16:34 PM »

Here is a small list of Analysis on which I decide to take positions.

1. Historical Data Analysis - Supports & Resistances
2. DMA - Short Term 20, 50 and 100. Long Term 200 DMA
3. High Low Analysis. (Capture Momentum) For Long Term it should be above AVG(52 H+L) and not break down significantly.
4. Study of 23% 38%, 50% and 61% Retracement Levels (If we are in a correction)
5. Stochastic, MACD
6. Supertrend (10,3) & VWAP (Follow Hourly Candle)
7. RSI - Short Term - 70+ (Overbought) and 30- (Oversold)
8. Know Sure thing
9. India VIX - Avoid Positions if it is >30

15

Trading Ideas / Why Traders Corner ?

« Last post by chetan on July 08, 2022, 04:01:14 PM »

The Paradigm of Savings changed from Bank Fixed Deposits in 90s to Equity Investments in early 2000. First came Value Investment, then Growth Stocks and now the never ending greed has taken most Investors to Trading for quick buck & action (contemporary with IPL 20-20)

Trading in underlying any "Instrument" is based on the Economics of Demand Vs Supply which determines the price. In this backdrop, this forum is to study Historical Data and do a Technical Analysis. Discuss Strategies for Trading & thoughts from the best minds.

NOTE: Please CONSULT SEBI Registered Financial Adviser before Investing

16

Mutual Funds in India / Taxation on International Funds

« Last post by resh on June 12, 2022, 10:45:29 PM »

For International Funds offered by AMCS in India and Investments made from India in Rupees (ETFs + Fund of Funds)

Taxation: They're to be treated as Debt Fund Investments

LTCG = 3 or More Years and applicable Tax is 20% with Indexation Benefit
STCG = Less than 3 Years and Taxed by clubbing with normal income

17

Sensex and Nifty Company Analysis / Re: NIFTY FY 2023 + FY 2024 EPS

« Last post by resh on May 07, 2022, 09:01:06 AM »

NIFTY50 EPS / Earnings Estimates

Philip Capital - Base Case Rs 930 for FY 2024.

Jefferies India - Rs 750 for FY 2022, Rs 862 for FY 2023 and Rs 991 for FY 2024. Dec 2022 NIFTY Target 17,500

Chola Research has estimates of Rs 866 for FY 2023 and Rs 1024 for FY 2024.

JM Financial estimates of Rs 889 for FY 2023 and Rs 1030 for FY 2024.

ICICI Direct estimates of Rs 815 for FY 2023 and Rs 925 for FY 2024.

Edelweiss Research has estimates of Rs 885 for FY 2023 and Rs 1027 for FY 2024.

NOTE: I doubt if FY 2024, we will see Rs 991. Expected to be between Rs 900 to Rs 930. Let us see what happens.

18

India Stocks and Shares / Re: Circular Trading on BSE

« Last post by resh on March 15, 2022, 01:19:51 PM »

Date 15-Mar-2022
SCRIP AXISCCGPGP
Exchange: BSE

12:06:06   16.10   16.10   16.10   16.10   3800
12:05:18   15.25   15.25   15.25   15.25   3800
10:55:28   16.15   16.15   16.15   16.15   3900
10:54:46   15.25   15.25   15.25   15.25   3900
09:57:39   16.15   16.15   16.15   16.15   3300
09:57:06   15.30   15.30   15.30   15.30   3300
09:53:11   16.15   16.15   16.15   16.15   3300
09:52:35   15.30   15.30   15.30   15.30   3300
09:44:44   16.15   16.15   16.15   16.15   3500
09:43:54   15.25   15.25   15.25   15.25   3500
09:39:29   16.15   16.15   16.15   16.15   3300
09:38:59   15.05   15.05   15.05   15.05   3300

Also in Scrip: AXISCBGPG
09:36:16   15.15   15.15   15.15   15.15   3500
09:35:22   14.45   14.45   14.45   14.45   3500
09:33:40   16.45   16.45   16.45   16.45   4000
09:33:39   14.45   14.45   14.45   14.45   4000

19

Sensex and Nifty Company Analysis / NIFTY FY 2023 + FY 2024 EPS

« Last post by resh on March 06, 2022, 11:53:15 PM »

Here is a NSE NIFTY 50 FY 2023 and FY 2024 Earnings Estimates

Axis Securities - Rs 844 and Rs 918
Motilal Oswal - Rs 876 and Rs 1,002

These estimates are as on Feb-28 2022 after the start of Ukraine War.

FY 2022 Estimates are at Rs 725 - Rs 730. Let us see what happens.

20

Equity Investments, Fundamental Research and Sectors Review / Why India Not Hurt ?

« Last post by resh on March 06, 2022, 11:22:40 PM »

Here is why Morgan Stanley Thinks India is Less Hurt from the Global Turmoil.

Policy certainty: India's policy environment is among the strongest in the world driving India's idiosyncratic growth story and, more importantly, likely creating a new profit cycle

Declining oil intensity in GDP: Oil consumption relative to GDP is at all-time lows and is steadily declining especially since 2014

Rising share of FDI to FPI in external balances: India used to rely primarily on foreign portfolio (FPI) flows to fund its current account deficit. FPI flows tend to react more aggressively to the effect of oil prices on shares and their actions feed into the macro creating a vicious cycle. However, since 2014, external funding has shifted dramatically to FDI which is more stable and less sensitive to oil price fluctuations