Ambuja Cements - Poor Performance
Thursday, October 29, 2009Ambuja's poor performance continued with profits missing our estimates by 15% on higher clinker purchases and high coal costs. ACEM's 3Q09 PAT grew 27% YoY on account of one-offs.
Domestic volumes increased 9.1% YoY while exports declined 50% YoY. The average realisation improved 10.5% YoY and 1.6% QoQ on account of a lower proportion of exports and higher realisations in the North and East.
Costs in 3Q09 surprised negatively. Ambuja is short of clinker capacity in the East and had to purchase clinker from the market given the strong demand in the region. Coal cost per tonne was flat sequentially, as the high-cost coal inventory was fully
consumed in the quarter.
Ambuja's EPs is expected to drop for 12-2010 to Rs 7.79 from Rs 8.25 this year (12-2009).
Published by Webmaster @ 10:45 AM IST.
ACC - Margin Under Pressure Q3-09 Review
ACC's Q3CY09 results were in line with our expectations. The company's topline rose 9% YoY to Rs 19.6bn, driven by a 6% YoY increase in realisations and a 3.1% growth in volumes.
ACC's EBITDA margins expanded 963bps YoY to 33.9% on account of higher realisations and lower power and fuel costs. However, on QoQ basis, the company's margins contracted 139bps. The company posted an EBITDA/tonne of Rs 1,333 during the quarter.
ACC's capacity expansion at Bargarh is expected to add 1.1mn tonnes to its existing capacities. Moreover, the New Wadi expansion project is likely to be commissioned in phases from the third quarter until Q1FY10.
ACC's EPS is expected to FALL in CY-2010.
Published by Webmaster @ 10:25 AM IST.
GAIL - Subsidy burden dents bottomline
Wednesday, October 28, 2009GAIL's net sales grew 0.8% YoY to Rs 62.2bn, in line with our estimate of Rs 63.9bn. During the quarter the company witnessed higher natural gas and LPG transmission volumes, a better transmission tariff, and increased gas trading revenues. However, this was largely offset by a higher subsidy burden and lower petrochemical volumes. GAIL's subsidy share stood at Rs 4.6bn as against Rs 4bn in Q2FY09. A key positive surprise, the gas transmission tariff rose 5% QoQ to Rs 806/mscm.
The company's EBITDA margin contracted 719bps YoY to 16.7%, below our estimate of 22.2% due to a higher-than-expected subsidy burden. This coupled with lower petrochem prices offset the benefits of higher transmission margins due to incremental volumes. However, petrochem prices have shown some improvement sequentlially, rising to Rs 69.8/kg in Q2FY10 from Rs 67.4/kg in Q1FY10.
GAIL's adjusted PAT declined 30.3% YoY to Rs 7.1bn, below our expectation of Rs 8.7bn. However, adjusting for the subsidy burden, PAT is 4.5% above our projection due to strong other income (up 145% QoQ to Rs 1.5bn).
Published by Webmaster @ 5:32 PM IST.
Union Bank PAT rises 40% in September quarter
Monday, October 26, 2009Union Bank of India (UBI) has announced its unaudited results for the quarter ended September 30, 2009.
The company reported a net profit of Rs 505.10 crore for the quarter under consideration against Rs 361.46 crore in the year ago period, a growth of 39.74%.
Total income of the bank has increased by 20.75% to Rs 3760.90 crore over Rs 3114.53 crore on a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis.
Citing lack of trained staff, Union Bank of India, which had charted major branch expansion plans, said it will go slow on the expansion.
Published by Webmaster @ 11:52 AM IST.
Sep-09 Quarter Earnings Season
Sunday, October 25, 2009Aggregate earnings [SENSEX Companies Rssults Declared So Far] are up 13% YoY, a tad ahead of our analyst expectations of 12%. In terms of surprise breadth, three of these eight companies reported net profit that exceeded expectations by 5% or more, while two trailed our expectations by 5% or less. Four companies in the BSE Sensex have reported 20% growth in earnings. It is still early days to analyze the earnings at the sector level.
Broader Market Earnings Lead the Narrow Market - 212 companies have reported. Aggregate earnings for the broad market are up 24%. The sharp recovery in margins, up 5.8ppt YoY, is the key driver for the strong earnings growth. However, revenues for the sample are up 4% YoY.
Published by Webmaster @ 11:07 AM IST.
Jaiprakash Associates Q2 + Bonus 1:2
Thursday, October 22, 2009Jaiprakash Associates has posted splendid results for the quarter ended September 2009. Net profit for the second quarter of the current fiscal soared a whopping 327.89% to Rs 870.19 crore, from Rs 230.37 crore in the previous corresponding period.
Total income for the quarter in review stood at Rs 1,912.51 crore a growth of 47.26% over Rs 1,298.76 crore in the year-ago period.
The company’s board, which met on October 21, 2009, declared an interim dividend of 27%, or Rs 0.54 per equity share of Rs 2 each, for the fiscal 2009-10.
The board also cleared the proposal to issue bonus shares in the ratio of one equity share for every two shares held in the company as on the Record Date to be fixed in due course.
Jaiprakash Associates is engaged in infrastructure construction, power projects, cement manufacturing and hospitality, among others.
Published by Webmaster @ 10:17 AM IST.
Jindal SAW - Long-term visibility missing
Friday, October 16, 2009Jindal Saw Q3 net sales declined 7.6% YoY to Rs13,729mn (vs our estimate of Rs14,316mn). PAT surged 46.3% to Rs1,464mn as interest outgo fell 33.2% to Rs366mn. Margin expanded 520bp at 18.3% due to the 21% increase in blended price realization and 16.8% decline in raw material costs.
During Q3, the company bagged orders for DI pipes worth $105mn, increasing its total order book to US$700mn to be executed by March 2010. However, it failed to bag new orders for seamless pipes as the demand outlook for crude still remains poor. So though there is medium-term visibility, long-term earnings visibility is
missing.
Published by Webmaster @ 12:27 PM IST.
Praj Industries - Other Income boosts PAT
Thursday, October 15, 2009For Q2FY10, PIL standalone revenue remained flat at 2,016 mn, while its PAT grew by 31% to INR 396 Mn. The EBITDA margin at INR 409mn was up 27% on YoY and 88% on sequential basis. The EBITDA margin at 20% witnessed rise of 424 bps on YoY due to lower forex losses (INR -5 Mn this quarter against 113 Mn during similar period, year ago) and lower other expenses (down 18% YoY). Higher PAT, however was backed by higher
other income which rose to INR 98 Mn (+77% YoY). Other income included reversal of excess provision for doubtful debts (INR 9.5 mn) which made last year, redemption of MF and Other Investment and Interest on FD.
PIL's order book continued to stand at INR 8000mn, after adjusting for projects on hold and scrapped which has execution cycle of ~12 months.
Published by Webmaster @ 11:49 AM IST.
Industrial Production - Double-digit growth
Monday, October 12, 2009India's industrial sector is back and back with a vengeance. The 10.4% year-on-year rise in August was the first double-digit increase in output since October 2007 and compares with a bottom of - 0.2% in December. On a seasonally adjusted basis, our calculations suggest that output rose 2.3% on the month and 5.9% in 3 month-on-3 month terms (25.9% annualised). The latter is India's strongest increase since at least mid-1994 and can only be termed a powerful V-shaped recovery.
The breakdown of the August release by industry showed mining (12.9%), manufacturing (10.2%) and electricity (10.6%) all registering double-digit growth.Meanwhile, basic and intermediate goods were up 10% and 14.3% respectively, with capital goods production rising 8.3%. The last of these remains below the long-term average of 9.8%. Non-durable consumer goods were the only area to show a slowdown (to 3.7% from 5.8%).
Published by Webmaster @ 1:27 PM IST.
Infosys - Topline Below Expectations + Margins Better
Friday, October 09, 2009Infosys reported 1.2% revenue growth QoQ in constant currency, which was below our/street expectations. Revenue upsides were essential to drive FY11 upgrades and lack of the same is a disappointment, in our view. Next quarter guidance (flattish) builds in no "year-end budget flush" - one can argue that (as usual) it is conservative.
Margins improved another ~50bps sequentially, which was the key reason for EPS beat (vs. our estimates). Infosys has managed margins very well through the downturn and 2Q margins are a 7-year high (34.6% EBITDA margins in 2Q).
Management sounded more positive than the recent past and expects flattish to a marginal increase in 2010 IT budgets. However, they don't expect a budget flush which results in a flattish 3Q guidance. Pricing renegotiation are largely over.
Analysts expect full year EPS of Rs 103.96 for FY10 and Rs 110 for FY11. With INR getting stronger Vs the USD, Investors CAN Book Profits in the counter and take exposure to Indian Inclusive Growth Story Stocks. The days of HOLDING Infosys Fad is behind us :-)
Published by Webmaster @ 1:16 PM IST.
Gold touches new record of $1,045 / ounce in New York
Wednesday, October 07, 2009Gold futures scaled a new record on concerns that declining currencies will stoke inflation and increase the demand for the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation.
Gold futures soared to a new record of $1,045 an ounce in intra-day trades in New York, breaching the previous record of $1,033.90 in March 2008. The December delivery contract settled at $1,039.70 per ounce, up 2.2%, or $21.90, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
On the National Stock Exchange in India GoldBees is up 1% in morning Trade - INR 1564 / Gram.
Spot gold jumped 2.6% to a record $1,043.78. The metal has gained 18% this year.
Gold held in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, touched an all-time high of 1,134 metric tonnes seen on June 1 and was at 1,098.07 tonnes on Monday.
Silver futures for December delivery surged 4.6%, or 76 cents, to $17.295 an ounce on in New York. The metal climbed to a 13-month high of $17.69 on September 17 and is up 53% this year.
Published by Webmaster @ 10:14 AM IST.
Inflation double digit WPI inflation by Mar '10
Friday, October 02, 2009For the week ending 19 Sep '09, headline inflation (the wholesale price index, WPI) stood at 0.83%. Inflation for the week ending 25 Jul-09 was revised to -0.71% (from -1.58%).
In a shocking move, all major constituents of the WPI index - primary, fuel and manufacturing products - registered a w-o-w rise.
Government Blind Spectator to Food Inflation - Food inflation continues to move up. Price rises were noticeable for vegetables, egg, meat and fish. Food grains, pulses and fruit prices witnessed a w-o-w fall.
India's monetary authorities face a quandary. On the one hand, signals for monetary tightening are everywhere: strong pick-up in WPI inflation, double digit CPI inflation and significant liquidity overhang. On the other, a subdued global growth outlook, lack of strong domestic growth and the government’s large market borrowing program point towards maintaining an easy monetary policy. While we expect the RBI to start tightening much ahead of the G-3 (Euro area, Japan and the US), the tightening is unlikely to start before late FY10. In the meanwhile, in a bid to manage inflationary expectations, the RBI's communications are likely to turn increasingly hawkish
Published by Webmaster @ 10:48 AM IST.
