CLSA concerned about Reliance Valuations

Popular stock broking and research firm, CLSA has voiced concerns on the valuation of Reliance Industries Limited stock. In a report it said,

  • Capacity additions exceeded demand growth in 2006. This will become pronounced from 2008 as larger expansions start coming onstream
  • RIL is trading as a finely-priced, newsflow-driven asset play, but lacklustre core earnings growth over the next few quarters may weigh on its stock
  • Kotak Securities downgraded RIL and said, We estimate the gap between RIL’s stock price and our estimated fair value of its extant businesses at Rs 700 per share and Rs 600
  • RIL’s fundamentals have weakened over the past few months and there are several unresolved issues with Reliance’s financing, accounting and disclosures.

Its time to SELL and reduce some RIL holdings.

Via [ET]

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ABN-Amro recommends BUY on Aban Offshore Ltd

ABN Amaro in its research report have suggested to BUY Aban Offshore Ltd. [BOM:523204] Aban Offshore has increased its rigs from 4 to 20 in 3 years and is one of the top-10 rig operators globally. Repricing gains, Higher Capacity and acquistion of Sinvest will drive earnings growth of Aban in the next 3 years. ABN Amro has initiated a coverage with a 12 month price target of Rs1,300. 21% upside from current levels of Rs1080.

Annualized EPS expectations for FY07, FY08 and FY09 are Rs24.8, Rs116.5 and Rs223.5.

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Sobha Developers Ltd IPO 114 times subscribed

The IPO of Sobha Developers Ltd is heavily oversubscribed. Compared to Parsvnath developers Ltd, the size of Sobha IPO was half but it did see lot of applications on the last day of the IPO.

NOTE: If you are having problems with Intime Spectrun w.r.t Parsvnath IPO – Refund or Shares not credited to your demat account, send me an e-mail to nascentnet@yahoo.com with your application number and city. We are launching a SEBI complaint against Parsvnath.

The final subscription figures of Sobha Developers that I just received on fax are as follows,

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 168.8409 times subscribed
Non Institutional Investors 193.9597 subscribed
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 20.6839 subscribed
Employee Reservation 0.9320 subscribed. So some shares from Employee reservation will be made available to the above categories.

Lets analyze the Retail Individual Category subscription of Sobha Developers.

No of shares Offered: 24,01,282
No of Shares applied at Cut-Off: 4,68,19,100
Therefore, if we assume the IPO is priced at cut-off i.e is Rs640, then the issue is subscribed by 19.49 times. The allotment will be in the inverse ratio of subscription. So even for folks applying 150 shares, the allotment may go for lottery. [Many chances, it will not be known we know the demand in each category]

Good Luck!!! Don’t forget to e-mail if you have any complaints about Parsvnath and Intime Spectrum the third rate registrar.

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ICICI OneSource – FirstSource Indian BPO – IPO

Little did PE and VC investors in 2000-01 knew that Indian BPO operations will lead the second wave of IT outsourcing to India. Those with a vision invested and are now cashing out, prime example Warburg Pincus in WNS Holdings.

ICICI Ltd, India’s Citibank which is at the forefront of banking revolution in India invested in a BPO company ICICI OneSource [Renamed as FirstSource] and is now listing the company with an offer for sale of equity shares. ICICI has filed for the draft prospectus and is likely to sell 9.56 crore shares at a price to be determined by book building. Proceedings of the IPO are to be used for acquisitions in BPO space.

Other investors in the company are, Metavante Corp, Temasek Investments, West Bridge Capital and Sequoia Capital.

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Forthcoming PSU IPOs in India

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs have cleared the IPO offerings of the following PSU companies.

  • Power Finance Corporation Ltd – 11,73,16,700 shares equivalent to 10.22% of post-equity capital.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd – Fresh issue of shares which will not exceed 24% of the paid-up equity capital of the company.
  • Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd – Issue of 15.6 crore shares which is about 20% of the post-equity capital.
  • Bharat Earth Movers Ltd – 49,00,000 equity shares at a price to be determined by current market price of BEML during the issue.

All of these IPOs are likely to hit the market in between Jan-07 and March-07. Stay tuned for more developments.

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Reliance Long Term Equity Fund – Review and Analysis

Reliance Long Term Equity fund will be managed by Sr. Fund Manager at Reliance Mutual Fund, Mr. Sunil Singhania.

Sunil Singhania has a fantastic track record with Reliance Growth Fund and his Reliance growth Fund is also recognized by Lippers for outstanding performance.

Here are two Podcast presentations by Sunil Singhania on Reliance Long Term Equity Fund – focusing on Smallcap and Midcap stocks.

Podcast Presentation – 1 by Sunil Singhana for Reliance Long Term Equity Fund.
Podcast Presentation – 2 by Sunil Singhana for Reliance Long Term Equity Fund.

Investors can subscribe to the issue as the fund manager is upbeat about the prospects of smallcap and midcap companies in India. He says this is a chance to get into the next sunrise sector and the next Infosys.

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