Citi, ILFS Bullish on Godrej Consumer Products Ltd

Citigroup Research and ETrade owned IL&FS Investmart are bullish on the prospects of Godrej Consumer Products Ltd [GCPL].

GCPL’s 50:50 JV with SCA Hygiene Products, a Swedish consumer and paper goods company, will produce and market baby care and feminine hygiene products in India, Nepal and Bhutan. This development is particularly significant because, SCA group, which has a presence in 90 countries, is a market leader in the global absorbent incontinence products market and has 26% market share. This venture will give GCPL an entry into Rs 8 Billion Indian feminine hygiene market which is also growing at the rate of 12% YoY.

GCPL launched a new soap ‘Vigil,’ which has been priced competitively at Rs11 for a 75gm pack. Priced slightly above ‘Godrej No 1’ within GCPL’s stable, this brand would enable GCPL to participate in the high growth health soap market.

Godrej is expected to report an EPS of Rs 7.75 for FY08 and Rs 8.77 for FY09. Citi has a Low Risk BUY on Godrej Consumer Products Ltd with a Target Price of Rs 195, 31% upside from current levels.

ICICI – Gokaldas Exports to Outperform

Gokaldas Exports Ltd (GEL), India’s largest garment exporter, has drawn up an extensive roadmap for growth. It is expanding capacity by setting up three new factories and diversifying its client and product mix. Big global retailers are consolidating their vendor base and the company will be optimally positioned to capitalize on the opportunity with its expanded capacities.

ICICI predicts Gokaldas Exporst to report FY08E EPS of Rs 24.99 and FY09E EPS of Rs 31.46 . ICICI values the stock at 10x its FY09E EPS of Rs 31.46, setting a 12-15 month price target of Rs 315, upside of 33% from current levels. Gokaldas Research Report is available here.

ICRA IPO Oversubscribed 75 times

The IPO of ICRA Ltd which closed today is oversubscribed 75 times.

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 1290550 116986920 90.6489

Non Institutional Investors 387165 27924100 72.1245

Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 903385 48775960 53.9924

The retail part of the issue is 54 tiems oversubscribed. That means allotment for Rs 1.0 Lakh application will also be on lottery. The Ratio of allotment will be 1 : 2.7 for the Rs 1.0 lakh application. Come back to see the status of allotment here.

Indiabulls Real Estate debuts and declines

The stock hit a low of Rs 359 and a high of Rs 414.80. Exchanges have set Rs 407 as base price for the scrip with a 20% price band. A strong 11.1 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE. Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL) was formed following the demerger of the real estate business of Indiabulls Financial Services (IBFSL). The company was listed on the bourses today.

It may be recalled that as part of the demerger scheme of IBFSL, a share of IBREL was issued for every share held in IBFSL with 9 January 2007 as record date. Accordingly, trading in equity shares of IBFSL was done on ex-entitlement basis with effect from 2 January 2007. IBFSL stock had settled at Rs 659.65 on BSE on 29 December 2006, the last day when the stock was trading cum-entitlement basis (for allotment of IBREL shares). At the moment of writing this, IBFSL was hovering at Rs 364.

The total equity capital of IBREL is Rs 35.93 crore, consisting of 17.96 crore shares of Rs 2 each. Avoid all Real Estate stocks until further notice.

ICRA – Review and Recommendation

ICRA is India’s number two credit rating agency after CRISIL. Historically, the income of these agencies is directly proportional to the mood on Dalal Street. Moody’s have significant stake in ICRA and will be in full control of the company.

The current IPO, is an offer for sale and none of the proceeds will goto the company where you will be a shareholder. IFCI, SBI and UTI are selling their stake and Moody’s will get control of the company. ICRA still has 399 public issues under its belt and they are actively involved in rating the country’s debt instruments as well. The company will also benefit from Rating outsourcing services, Technical and Analytical Research of parent company’s clients from Wall Street.

On the FLIP side, ICRA has borrowed Rs 50 crore from banks to fund the ESOS Welfare Trust (ESOSWT) for subscription to the preferential allotment made to it under the employee stock option plan (ESOP). The interest costs will take a direct hit on the bottom line of the company.

Financials:
The company doesn’t have any topline growth YoY. Total Income for FY2002 was Rs 31.5 crore and for FY2006 it was 35.1 crore. For the 9 Months ending Dec-2006, the company had a top line of Rs 31.9 crore and a PAT of Rs 11.7 crore. Annualizing the company’s results on fully diluted equity(Rs 10 crore) ICRA will report an EPS of Rs 15.6 for March-2007.

IPO Offer:
Fully Diluted Equity after IPO: Rs 10.00 crore.
Offer Price: Rs 275 to Rs 300
Retail Offer: 903,385 shares. Issue Size of Retail is mere VERY VERY Small – Rs 24.8 crore to Rs 27 crore.

Recommendation:
ICRA has very good promoters and is a very small company with good opportunities for growth. ICRA has been offered at a P/E of 19.2 at higher end. Comparing this to CRISIL which currently trades over a P/E of 40+, one maybe tempted to apply. However, CRISIL’s price at a P/E of 40+ is highly unjustified [You can justify in comment, if you like].

Personally, I like to chase growth stocks [Amtek Auto, Punj Lloyd, Tech Mahindra, etc] and ICRA has to prove that its a growth stock by getting Business and increasing its topline which it hasn’t done in the past 4 years. Also since the issue is very small, I am personally skipping the issue since the allotment will be in lottery.

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PSU Banks going back to Government

The finance ministry has ordered the recasting of the boards of all listed public-sector banks, cutting down the number of shareholder directors by 50% while raising the number of government appointed “independent” directors.

Extremely Bad Decision as the government’s grip on public-sector banks will increase.

In a related development, the government has also withdrawn its own directors as well as the Reserve Bank of India’s directors from the management committees of bank boards. This key board committee is responsible for clearing all big-ticket loans that cannot be cleared by the CEO of a bank. The loan-sanctioning power of the public-sector bank CEO is limited to Rs60 crore at small banks and Rs100 crore at big banks. This reminds me of the series of co-operative banks that went bankrupt in between late 90s and 2002 because of involvement of corrupt directors.

Bank CEOs, in private, say that while such nominees are technically independent professionals, in reality most of them are political appointments and normally belonging to the party in power. For instance, one so-called independent director who is set to join a large Mumbai-based bank is Rani Satish, the former minister of state for Kannada and Culture from the ruling Congress party.

“On what basis do I remove a shareholders’ nominee?” asks a visibly frustrated chairman of a very large public sector bank, who says the timing of the government decision is unfortunate because public-sector banks need more outside expertise at a time when they are trying to compete more aggressively with private banks that can attract a more diverse board.

The terrible decision by government to recast public sector bank boards does not technically abide by the capital market regulator’s norms on independent directors on the boards of listed entities. In accordance with Clause 49 of the listing norms, all listed corporations should have 50% independent directors on their boards.

Hopefully the rating agencies like Fitch and Moody’s will downgrade India to RISKY category.