Just a while ago Citigroup Analysts have turned BUYERS into Aluminium stocks in India [Upgrading NALCO and Hindalco from SELL to BUY]. Citi’s global Analyst, expects an emerging power crunch and shortage of high quality bauxite to cause a shift in the competitive landscape for aluminium, driving aluminium & alumina prices up. New aluminium prices are US$3,600/t (+22%) in FY09 and US$4,500/t in FY10 (+71%). (more…)
Author: CP
IndiaBulls Real Estate – Underperformer
After Merill Downgraded IndiaBulls Financial Services, Credit suisse has downgraded IndiaBulls Real Estate [IBREL] to UNDERPERFORM. (more…)
Industrial Production at 6 year Low
Rising borrowing costs had a severe impact on India’s industrial production, which grew at the slowest pace since 2002 in March. India IIP Data for March AT 3% Vs 8.6% in Feb. Sonal Verma of Lehman Brothers said,
Industry is facing headwinds from tight monetary conditions, high raw material costs and weakening foreign demand.There is unlikely to be much scope to cut policy rates in 2008 to boost domestic demand.
Analysts expects interest rates not to come down and higher interest rates are discouraging sales of 2 and 4 wheeler automobiles and residential real estate as well.
Effects of Higher Crude Oil Prices on India
India is the 10th largest oil importing nation in the world (oil imports are close to 70% of its crude oil requirements). If the average price of crude oil for FY09 is $105 / bbl, then, it will result in the FY09 trade deficit coming in at US$115bn. According to Citi, (more…)
Reduce Bharat Bijlee – Kotak
Bharat Bijlee’s [BBL] numbers though good appears to indicate moderate growth.BBL reported 11% growth in Q4FY08 to Rs.1.9 bn. On a sequential basis, revenue growth was strong at 79% QoQ. In the third quarter, the company had suffered loss of production on account of the capacity expansion work being carried out at its facility. Hence, the fourth quarter also had some revenue spillover of the previous quarter. (more…)
Voltamp Transformers – Electrifying Profits
Voltamp Transformers 4Q08 net sales grew 10% yoy to Rs1.35bn, 18.3% lower than our estimates. For the year, they rose 36.9% yoy, to Rs5.55bn, 5.2% lower than estimated. Expect the company to clock sales of Rs8bn and Rs10.7bn for FY09 and FY10, at a 39% CAGR. The value of confirmed orders on hand for FY09 is Rs4.5bn. Capex (relocation to Vadodara) planned for FY09 is Rs350m. The expected transformer manufacturing capacity by FY10, postexpansion, is 13,000 MVA.
For the year, PAT more than doubled, to Rs799m (shooting up 102.3% yoy, at just 1.3% over our Rs789m estimate). The exponential growth was fuelled by significant savings in material costs, which nosedived 580bp yoy. For 4Q08, the company reported PAT of Rs217m, up 59.7% yoy (5% above our expectations). Revised PAT estimates for FY09 and FY10 stand at Rs1bn and Rs1.4bn, a 30.4% CAGR.