Author: CP

Idea Cellular’s revenue was up 5.8% qoq (47% yoy). EBITDA was down 16% qoq and 20% below estimate. Net income of Rs1.44bn (EPS: Rs0.50) was down 35% yoy and came in 44% below estimate.

ARPU dropped 6% qoq (3% in 1Q) to Rs266 as MOU/subscriber slid 3.5% (+4.1% in 1Q). We suspect this reflects: weaker quality of new subs and seasonality – reduced roaming during the monsoons. ARPM was down 3.6% qoq to Rs0.63/minute.

EBITDA margin collapsed 673bps as network and S&M costs soared 19.4% and 33.8%, respectively. Excluding Mumbai, the margin was down 520bps, which reflects rapid network expansion and brand building costs.

HDFC – India’s largst Housing Finance company reported net profit of Rs5.34bn (higher than our estimate), a ~32% yoy growth on a pre-exceptional basis (17% yoy de-growth including exceptionals). As anticipated, there is some moderation in disbursement growth to ~23% in Q2FY09 from ~26% in FY08 in the context of high interest rates, however approvals have continued to grow at ~26% yoy to ~Rs141.8bn.

Growth in the retail segment continues unabated with individual disbursements up 30%+ yoy. Despite sustained loan growth and elevated property prices & interest rates, HDFC has witnessed an improvement in asset quality in Q2FY09. Gross NPAs and Net NPAs have declined in absolute and percentage terms on a yoy and qoq basis.

Break-up of HDFC’s loan book:
Individuals – 54,726 crore
Corporate – 24,509 crore
Others – 1,959 crore
Financing for Realty Projects – 755 crore

Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals’ (Chambal’s) adjusted PAT of Q2FY09 was better than expectation on the back of a sharp jump in the trading sales, resulting in an addition to the bottom-line. Chambal has shown a YoY growth of 130.2% in the adjusted PAT to Rs985.7m. The company has provided MTM losses of approx. Rs510m on trading creditor of US$170m, payable in July 2009. Hence, the reported PAT was Rs475.7m. Chambal’s Q2FY09 has declared a result which is standalone, while our annual estimates are consolidated.

Chambal has shown a YoY growth of 133.5% in sales to Rs17,451.3m, on the back of higher trading sales and fertilizer subsidy due to rising input costs. The company has added three ships in H1FY09 that resulted in a YoY growth of 45.4% in the shipping business to Rs1051.7m in Q2FY09. In Q2FY09, Chambal has charged the interest of capitalized new ships in the profit and loss account, instead of the cost of ships as done earlier. Hence, the interest cost jumped by 112.4% to Rs416.3m. Chambal has received entire outstanding fertiliser subsidies till August 2008.

The stock yields good dividend around 9% if bought sub Rs 40 levels. Investors looking for dividend yield can look at the stock.

In 2QFY09, Concor’s sales growth was a moderate 10% yoy due to a 9% improvement in realizations despite 1% volume growth. According to management, Exim volume grew only 3% due to a global slowdown, while domestic volume fell 8.8%. Domestic volume was hit by lower petrochemical volumes and ban on some commodity exports. The PAT for 1FH-Y09 was Rs 425.7 crore

Cost rationalization helped EBITDA grow 26.6% yoy, expanding margin by 383bps to 29.8%. Deployment of new equipment in ICDs and route rationalization helped Concor reduce costs.

Being zero debt and cash rich, Concor has maintained its capex plans despite the slowdown and liquidity crunch. According to management, this approach should help them once demand picks up.

Expect Concor to report an EPS in the range of Rs 67.50 to Rs 68.30 for full year FY09.