Indian Equity Research and Investment Strategy
In an analysis by HSBC about the top 10 questions on the minds of foreign investors for investing in Asia, the outlook for India is gloomy with the slowdown and general elections, approximately 6 months away.
No of Investors argued that the cyclical downturn in India may turn into a full-blown slump as global financial problems start to spill over into the economy. However, HSBC firmly defended that there one should not be worried. (more…)
Goldman Sachs has revised India’s GDP growth numbers for FY09 to 6.7% from 7.5% and for FY10 to 5.8% from 7.0%. GS cited that the larger-than-expected shock to the financial sector over the past couple of months, and its knock-on effects on both domestic and external demand key factors that led to the downgrade.
Expect growth to trough at a quarterly pace of 5.0% in the April-June quarter of FY10, before recovering to 6.6% by end-FY10. Large monetary policy stimulus, prospects of a good agricultural crop supporting rural demand, lower commodity prices, and ongoing infrastructure spending which would limit further downside to growth.
As we move into FY10, political risks will begin to weigh-in and stronger measures required at the macro level will be hit.
The Growth in CNG cylinders’ usage will continue to be robust for the next few years despite the recent fall in crude oil prices as developing economies which account for bulk of the demand rely heavily on imported sources of energy, hydrocarbon supply over the next 5-10 years will not match demand and CNG is definitely economical. (more…)
This report is quite scary but we gotta face the truth and read into the data of Technical Analysts. ENAM Research has studied the SENSEX charts of the past 30 years and according to them, the correction is still not over.
India has witnessed a Grand bull market in the past 30 years, with intermittent bear markets commencing after every 8 years. Indian markets have experienced significant bear markets/consolidation after peaking out higher every 8 years; that is, after forming a high in the years 1985, 1992, 2000 and 2008. (more…)
Titan reported a 53% increase in sales and 88% net profit growth. Moreover, sales growth of both the watches and jewellery divisions was satisfactory; both posted handsome margin expansion. EBIT margins expanded 270bp on mix gains, ahead of expectations, as premium-end Titan and Fastrack continued to grow significantly faster than mass-end Sonata. Titan Eye+ store roll out is on track with 34 stores at the end of the quarter; target being 60 stores by FY09 end. (more…)
IVRCL’s Q2 FY09 Recurring PAT at Rs354mn was 36% ahead of our estimates primarily led by 34% better than expected sales; alleviating our concerns on the possibility of execution delays even as the operating environment is difficult. After including the impact of a) Rs160mn dividend received from its 62.3% listed real estate subsidiary, IVR Prime b) forex loss of Rs30mn on its outstanding FCCB and c) full tax rate at 34%, reported PAT at Rs571mn was up 57% YoY.
Current orderbook is Rs140bn. The company expects another Rs15-20bn of orders shortly as they have emerged as the lowest bidders on the same. ~65%-70% of orderbook is from the water segment. Water projects from the AP government form ~30%-40% of the water projects orderbacklog. (more…)