2013 | Dalal Street

Equity Research

Railway Budget – Neither Reformist Nor Populist

February 27, 2013February 27, 20132 min read

A significant pent-up expectation had developed on the eve of the Rail Budget FY14. But we find the budget wanting in a number of areas like rolling stock capex and track-capex allocation (adjusted for DFC and MTP projects). Resource generation will again fall on freight segment which will bear the brunt of hike (~5%) and extra-budgetary support as passenger fares are untouched.

The ministry taking cognizance of a serious shortfall of resources gave resource generation its focus with implementation of Fuel Adjustment Component (FAC) for freight transport. We believe this is a weak attempt to balance the revenue skew, as it was not passed on to the passenger fares which (more…)

Breaking Corporate India Earnings News

Is SBI Really that Bad to be worth just Rs 1625 ?

February 15, 20132 min read

In a Research note a Week ago, Morgan Stanley Downgraded India’s Sovereign bank the State Bank of India – SBI to a Sell with a Target price of Rs 1625. Some of the concerns raised by Morgan are – Revenue progression (loan growth plus fees) likely to be tepid given slowdown in economic growth, Asset quality will likely remain under pressure, given peak lending rates and slowing growth, Core Tier I capital ratio is one of the weakest amongst Asian peers and Multiples could be under pressure as revenue growth slows and asset quality pressures increase.

SBI announced its Results for the 9 Months ended Dec-2012. The Bank (more…)

Economy, Markets and Macro Views

High Inflation – Lower Savings from Households

February 15, 20132 min read

Central Government Statistics Data indicate a sharp deceleration in savings to 30.8% of GDP from 34% in FY11, while investments slowed to 35% of GDP in FY12 from 36.8% in FY11. Despite growth slowing to a decade low, the substantial fall in savings relative to investments is key for India’s widening current account deficit (CAD).

Who Provide Funds by Savings to the Indian Economy ?
Indian Households are the main contributor (~73% of total), followed by (more…)

Economy, Markets and Macro Views

Export Rise Miniscule – Jan Trade Deficit Widens to US$20bn Oil + Gold Spoilers

February 14, 20132 min read

India’s Jan Trade Deficit Widened to US$20bn. The only silver lining in the data is the first positive export growth reading in the last 9 months with exports at US$25.6bn, up 0.8%. Imports continue to edge higher to US$45.6bn up 6% led by both oil and non-oil up 6.9% and 5.7% respectively

Cumulatively during Apr-Jan, exports were US$240bn down -4.9%, while (more…)

Equity Research

Do care about CARE Ratings Stock – Poised for Re-Rating

February 14, 2013February 14, 20132 min read

CARE Ratings is India’s second-largest credit rating firm in terms of ratings income for FY12. CARE’s total income and profit after tax CAGR during FY08-12 were 41% and 44.3%, respectively. RoE was 30.7% in FY12, and we see it in the high 20s for the next three years.

The key drivers for the CARE’s Revenues are – 1) India’s macroeconomic (more…)

Equity Research

Indian Investors Exit – FII Holding at Highest Level

February 13, 20132 min read

Key Indian Benchmark Indices are up whopping 30% in the last 13 Months. Foreign Institutional Investors have bought total Equity of US$31 billion since then and their ownership of Indian equities has reached all-time highs. In contrast, domestic institutional flows have been negative (US$15 billion).

We can ascertain that one of the pockets where Domestic Investors have redeemed is the Insurance Related ULIPs to the tune of $3Bn in Nov-Dec 2012.. Investors were struck in these non yielding instruments sold by private Indian insurance companies which was a big day time loot and the Indian Government did little while complaints against Insurance Sector Piled up. With rising market, the average Indians (more…)

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