Indian Equity Research and Investment Strategy
At the CLSA India Conference, Indians Corporates appeared to be cautious and most highlighted weak consumer demand as a near-term headwind. The cautious view was emanating from the belief that the market has already factored in, partially, the strong outcome in the elections.
Weak Consumer Sentiment
10 companies from consumer staples & retailing appeared cautious on the near term growth outlook citing weak consumer demand partially (more…)
The Indian markets will be driven by politics and developments around the “taper” to drive the market in the first half of 2014. Both will have limited impact on fundamentals, but market sentiments will still get affected. Their research suggests almost no correlation between the extent of government fragmentation at the centre and growth / market performance.
Investment Cycle Broken
They foresee the investment cycle staying broken for the next two to three years and middle-income consumption to stay under pressure as inflation and stagnant (more…)
The Nifty has been ranging for over two-years, the ranging pattern is roughly 40% (or 1,800 pts) wide. When the market finally breaks out of these ranges the minimum expectation will be for a 40-50% advance.The most dynamic price moves occur when markets emerge from a prolonged period of sideways trading. The longer the time spent ranging the greater potential of the ensuing breakout. However, with the Nifty in US dollar and relative terms nowhere near breakout levels we are not expecting the Nifty to record a sustained breakout at this time. (more…)
The Sanctity of Highly Paid Equity Research is – It Follows the market and never Leads 🙂 At a time when all the Star Analysts Downgraded India, the market rose very sharpy. And this time around, Goldman Sachs Star Analysts, Timothy Moe, Sunil Koul and Team have upgraded India to MarketWeight from Underweight.
The Report said that there exists optimism in the political front, led by BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Mr. Narendra Modi. External Pressures have moderated according to Goldman and early signs of cyclical pick up and structural improvement. (more…)