March, 2012 | Dalal Street

Indian IIP Index – A Puzzling Graph

March 12, 20122 min read

The Jan-2012 IIP number release was much better than expected at 6.8% y/y ( December was also revised higher to 3.5. Though consensus was much lower at 2.1%. The biggest surprise was the driver of this strong number. Consumer non durables ( has a weight of 21% in the overall IIP) grew at astonishing rate of 42% y/y. Since the IIP series began in 2004-05 , this is the highest growth ever recorded by the sub index of consumer non durables.

Some Rise sharply in January: In the manufacturing segment, growth accelerated (more…)

Equity Research

Congress Lost Big Opportunity – Third Front Can be Disaster – Long Term Investors Read

March 9, 2012March 9, 20123 min read

So much I hate to read and analyze the dirty Politics of our country, yet I am forced to as Foreign Investors the big movers and shakers of our market are keenly watching the Political scenario and the equation is getting worse by the day.

When people voted the UPA back to power, they had the “low-cost, high growth” economic engine to their credit. Arrogance just flows in the blood of our UPA Government which has performed pathetically in its second term. Apart from series of Corruption Scandals and Highest ever Inflation their performance in pushing the Economic reforms is miserable – 85 bills are pending and 35 have lapsed. Congress led UPA could have cut the plethora of exemptions to streamline the (more…)

Economy, Markets and Macro Views

IIP + RBI Policy Review + Railway + Union Budget – Eventful Week Ahead

March 8, 20122 min read

The forthcoming week is an eventful week for the market with the IIP Data, RBI Monetary Policy Review, Railways and the Union Budget.

IIP Data – The core sector growth of almost zero percent suggest the data is going to be week for almost 6 months now. Expectations are for 1% growth which is very weak. The RBI and government must understand that with 1.2 Bn population we cannot have slow industrial growth else there will huge unemployment problem in India.

WPI Inflation Data – With surprise huge upward revisions in index of previous months this month we may have index level of 158.1 assuming upward revisions to continue.

Will the Government Hike Oil Prices ? Everybody thought the hike will come as soon as election results (more…)

Equity Research

Pathetic Performance of Scam Scarred Congress in Assembly Polls – Impact on Markets

March 7, 20123 min read

The Corrupt / Scams scarred Congress Party headed by Rahul Gandhi fared poorly in elections in five states. Ok, Congress and Rahul maybe in denial mode, but Data has proved they are no more a reckoning force so lets analyze what are the Possibilities of Finance Minister Pranab Da taking the reforms forward or Pranab Da taking the negotiations with regional parties to save the Paralyzed Government.

We had already analyzed (more…)

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