January, 2010 | Dalal Street

Equity Research

TVS Motors- Ready to Ride the Auto Boom

January 4, 2010April 18, 20201 min read

South India based TVS Motor has started to invoice the 110cc commuter bike Jive. Given the positive expert reviews, and expectations of national ramp up in less than 3 months, we raise motorcycle growth assumptions to 25% in FY11 (earlier 15%). This would imply above industry average growth rate (estimated ~15%), likely given the company’s absence so far in the mid-priced commuter category i.e. ~55% of bike market.

Export sales (~11% of aggregate two wheeler sales) declined 28% YTD to ~93,000 units, due to recessionary conditions in key destinations, which led to (more…)

Economy, Markets and Macro Views

Nomura India Macro Strategy 2010

January 4, 20102 min read

The markets is no mood to correct and Bulls have taken total control of the same. Here is Nomura’s Expectations from Indian Equities for 2010.

Growth: The 2H FY09 (fiscal year-ending 31 March, 2009) saw demand reeled in. Expect better growth in FY11F, underpinned by a turn in the investment cycle. Firm signs of a demand recovery are evident. Capacity shortages that had been masked by absent demand are now back to the fore, creating conditions for a capex revival. (more…)

Breaking Corporate India Earnings News

December Sales High for Automobile Industry

January 4, 20101 min read

Automobile sales saw very high y-o-y sales growth in December [but lower than Novermber-2009], benefiting from economic recovery, improving bank financing and a low comparison base. Two wheeler sales are benefiting from strong farm income and a revival in urban sales.

Here is the Sales Snapshot YoY increase for the Month of December [NOTE – December 2008 can be termed as a Low Base Effect]

Hero Honda – 74%
Bajaj Auto – 77%
TVS Motors – 34%
Maruti Suzuki – 50%
Mahindra & Mahindra – 100%
Tata Motors – 104%

The impact of an excise duty hike should be the least on two wheeler makers as they have about one-third of production coming from factories situated in tax havens. Also, two wheeler makers have taken various price hikes in the last year to protect margins, which gives us confidence that they should be able to protect margins by taking further price hikes, in the event that input costs start rising.

Equity Research

Kewal Kiran Clothing – Killer Investment Idea

January 3, 20102 min read

Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited (KKCL) today is amongst the few large branded apparel manufacturers in India. KKCL brands brands range from the high fashion premium segment such as ‘Killer’ for denim wear and ‘Easies’ for casual wear to the middle and economy segments through brands such as ‘Lawman’ and ‘Integriti’.

The company has constantly introduced new fits, finishes and fabrics. The company’s own R & D team working closely with designers is constantly innovating, creating an exciting array of product lines in a variety of fabrics, washes and cuts, using the latest in technology and processes. Fashion with Quality is the cornerstone of each collection introduced (more…)

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