Year: 2008

Yesterday we reported about the hike in petroleum products and excise duties. Post-hike, the Wholesale Price Index is expected to rise by 55 bps only on account of the hike in these 3 products.

The hikes also meant increase in consumer’s burden by Rs211 bn (US$4.9 bn or 0.39% of GDP) and the government will bear tax losses amounting to Rs226.6 bn (US$5.3bn or 0.42% of GDP) in F2009 (12 months ended March 2009).

The combined central plus state deficit including the off-budget expenditure items is expected to be about 8.9% of GDP in F2009 (from 9.3% earlier).

TRF’s Q4FY2008 results were mixed bag – (1) revenue below estimates at Rs1.7 bn and 20% yoy growth and (2) net profit in line with estimates at Rs154 mn and 54% yoy growth. For FY2008, TRF reported net profit growth at 59% yoy to Rs322 mn and earnings of Rs58.4/Share, ahead of estimates. TRF is comfortably placed with Rs10 bn order backlog executable in next 24-30 Months. But, the quality of above order backlog is worrisome with presence of fixed price contracts.

Despite a below expected revenue growth, EBIDTA growth at 47% yoy to Rs228 mn was in line with estimates. We attribute this to 150 bps expansion in EBIDTA margins to 13.5% in the current quarter. This is largely driven by change in revenue mix with high margin Products Division contributing 25% of revenues in Q4FY2008 against 20% in Q4FY2007.

TRF has outstanding order backlog of Rs10 bn as on 31st March 2008.

VIP Industries declared its FY2007-08 numbers. Sales and PAT are 12% and 8% below consensus estimate. EBITDA margin stood at 9.9% as compared to estimates of 10.2%.

Total standalone sales for Q4FY08 stood at Rs1.1bn, while consolidated sales for FY08 were at Rs5.7bn an growth of 9% YoY. EBITDA margin for the quarter were at 8.3% compared to 10.3% on standalone level. Consolidated EBITDA margin were at 9.9% Vs 8.5% meaning that integration of Aristocrat Luggage has started yielding results. Consolidated PAT before extra-ordinary item (VRS Account a drag here) stood at Rs 285mn(18% YoY), while post extra-ordinary item it was at Rs216mn (48% YoY).

We estimate VIP to report an earnings of Rs 7.45 for FY2009. VIP Industries retail venture planned to add 100 exclusive outlets and the company commanded ~50% market share in organized retailing of luggage merchandise.

Sun Pharma reported Q4FY09 sales Rs12.5 bn (up 131% YoY), PAT Rs7.2bn (up 241%YoY). Results were dominated by the higher-than-expected Protonix shipments. EBITDA margin expanded to 58.9% in Q4FY08 from 28.4% in Q4FY07. The India formulations business grew 25%YoY in FY08 to Rs14.7bn while the ROW formulations business grew 30%YoY in FY08 to Rs2.6bn. The US business grew 164% YoY to Rs13.9bn driven by Trileptal exclusivity and the Protonix launch.

The management guidance is 18%-20% YoY growth for FY09 for the non-US business and expects 25% growth in the US business.Management reiterated that it is confident of getting the Effexor XR approval later this year but did not give any specific timeline.

EPS estimates for FY09 is between Rs 80 to Rs 82.50.