Subbarao RBI Governor Appointment – Political Move

The appointment of Dr. Subbarao as the new RBI Governor has seen as a Political move by Foreign Financial Institutions effectively designed to put a halt to the progressive monetary tightening that Governor Reddy has implemented since he took the job in September 2003.

On 28 July, Dr. Subbarao spoke to Bloomberg and quoted that raising rates is the “obvious” answer to surging prices. So we can expect interest rate calls unchanged, envisaging 50bps of repo rate hikes and 50-75bps on the CRR by end CY2008. The rate reductions will only begin in 2H CY2009 when growth may have slipped below 7%.

A period of below trend growth, which the monetary tightening may well engineer, is likely to be deemed as an inevitable consequence of controlling inflation expectations and easing the many bottlenecks in the economy.

HCL Tech counter bid Infosys’ Axon ?

We have reliably learnt that HCL technologies is preparing a counter bid to Infosys’ bid for Axon. We had covered the implications of Axon takeover by Infosys on the 26th of August and had clarly stated at the end that a counter bid is not ruled out.

Our due dilligence indicates that HCL Technologies has $100 mn in cash and maybe upto $500 mn including short term investments. HCL has appointed Merill to help it counter bid and arrange for part financing the deal.

HCL Technologies is not present in the SAP domain and the acqusition will complement its existing vericals and strengthen is base in Europe. HCL already is one of the best local employers in the European union and may not face any hurdles while obtaing the clearance if it wins the bid.

Discplined SIP a Must – Wealth Creation

One of this blog’s reader / mutual fund investor asked me on if he should switch-out of HSBC Equity Fund and Reliance Growth Fund which have been downgraded by Dhirendra Kumar @ Value Research.

Well Dhirendra certainly is a Sr. Analyst but we differ from his frequent upgrading and downgrading of Funds. We are also seeing that HDFC Top 200 is back to 5 Star Rating so is HDFC Prudence fund. [They were at 4 Star for few weeks] This swift rating change has confused some investors. Please don’t be, continue to invest regularly despite difficult times and uncertainty in the market.

In one of the previous posts, I have written about HDFC’s process. The internal process in the AMC is designed & in place in such a way that the outcome to investors may not get the best in the industrybut you will certainly be in the Top-5 is my conviction.

Latest Return over Investment Reviews of,

Except for HSBC Equity, which is relatively new [6 years of track record] all the other funds have given higher returns for SIP investors. Questions, Comments and Critics can be sent to feedback @ dalalstreet dot biz.

India Trade Deficit – All time High

India’s Trade deficit in July 2008 hit an all-time high of US$10.8bn. In the first four months of FY09, the deficit swelled to US$41bn, in contrast to US$80 bn for the whole of FY08. Of this, oil accounted for US$26bn and non-oil US$15bn. Exports rose 31.2% in July 2008 against YTD growth of 24.6% mainly on account of the weakening rupee helping the exporters. (more…)

2 + 4 Wheeler Auto Sales for August

Breaking NewsAutomobile dealer dispatches were mixed this month with strong dispatches in two wheelers (especially Hero Honda), and relatively weaker trends visible in the passenger car segment.

Impressive growth was driven by Hero Honda dealer dispatches (+27% Y/Y). Bajaj Auto’s domestic sales declined 7% Y/Y, whilst TVS’ domestic sales rose a modest 6% Y/Y. Hero Honda continues to build inventory levels ahead of the festive season. Sequentially, both motorcycle and 2 wheeler sales were up ~6% and 5% respectively.

Maruti Suzuki’s sales fell by 10% Y/Y due to a sharp decline in A2 (compact segment) sales. Retail offtake continues to be weak, given the adverse macro environment – higher interest rates and an erosion of wealth (in both property and financial markets)
Mahindra & Mahindra’s August sales rose 8% YoY; driven by strong tractor sales (+16% YoY). UV sales were muted (+2% Y/Y) as strong growth in non Scorpio sales (+12% Y/Y) was offset by weak Scorpio sales (-21% YoY).

Indian Rupee New Low Vs Dollar

The Indian Rupee has breached the 44 level and is weakening against the USD. The RBI is not really active in the market which is a blessing in disguise to the Exporters. Now, why is the RBI piling up USD ? Well, as an insurance cover 🙂

The March 08 international investment position tells that, US$297bn fx reserves not withstanding, India still owes US$100+bn. This is why, in Gov Reddy is so reluctant to use fx to appreciate against inflation – as some Delhi economists advise – or float a sovereign wealth fund – as another section proposes – to acquire strategic CIS gas fields. Recall he let the INR temporarily slip Rs46+/USD in mid-06 rather than run down fx reserves. This, of course, begs the question why we still expect the RBI to stem depreciation? Because this time’s different because of imported inflation.

You may also want to read the 50 factors that influence the value of USD.

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