I-Sec Sensex Expectation – Bearish

Due to marked deterioration in earnings outlook ICICI Secucties – i-Sec has lowered our target PE multiple to 11.8x (one Standard deviation below the 8 year mean of 15.9x) against 15.2x (8 year median) used previously. i-Sec has also pushed back the investment horizon to March 2010 from Sept 2009 to price in a more prolonged phase of risk aversion and now expect Sensex level of 16050 by then. (more…)

Industrial Production 1.3% – A Shock

Aug 08 India Industrial Production slows to 1.3% significantly lower than expectations and the lowest level seen since Oct 98. While growth was expected to come in lower due to the high base (Aug 07 @ 10.9%), the 1.3% number was a shock. On a sectoral basis, mining did relatively well at 4%, while growth in manufacturing and electricity was 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. Cumulatively, growth during Apr-Aug slowed to 4.9% vs. 10% last year.

Capital goods was up 2.3% vs. the high base of 30.8% last Aug; Consumer goods held up at 5% but aided by the flat growth last year. What is worrying is the contraction in intermediate goods at -6.2% – the lowest level seen over 13 years. Primary components of intermediate goods include
cotton yarns, filaments, pipes, auto ancillaries, LPG and natural gas, and polyester fibers, paints and varnishes.

Infosys Q2 at 1390 Crore

Infosys Technologies has reported a net profit of Rs 1390 crore for the September 2008 quarter, as against Rs 1074 crore during the year-ago period.

The company’s total income has moved up from Rs 4005 crore for the September 2007 quarter to Rs 5143 crore for the September 2008 quarter.

Infosys Stock is currently trading down 11% at Rs 1,116. More details will be updated soon.

Update:
On a consolidated basis, the Infosys’ net sales for the quarter ended on Sep-30 rose 11.64 per cent to Rs 5,418 crore from Rs 4,854 crore in the Apr-Jun quarter. Net profit rose 9.98 per cent to Rs 1,432 crore against Rs 1,302 crore in the previous quarter.

Infosys Guidance:
The Management has given a guidance of mere 13 to 13.5% growth for FY-2009, downward revision from 20%.

Alkali Metals – Avoid

Alkali Metals Limited (AML) is engaged in the manufacturing of a range of fine, based on related chemistry. Currently, the company has two manufacturing facilities, each having an installed capacity of 2200 MTPA. The Unit I is engaged in the manufacture of sodium metals, organo alkali metallics, tetrazoles, amino pyridines and caters to the domestic market and Unit II, a 100% EOU is engaged in the manufacture of pyridine derivatives, cyclic compounds and fine chemicals. (more…)

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