Patni Computers + IndusInd Bank

Shares of under performing and family managed company Patni Computers are trading up because of rumor that Private Equity investors may BUY stake in the company. The promoters have been slacking and are incompetent.

As per reports, private equity (PE) funds Texas Pacific Group and Apax Partners are close to purchasing the stake of two Patni brothers Ashok and Gajendra in Patni Computer Systems Limited.

The agreement between one of the private equity partners and the Patni brothers, who jointly hold 29% stake, is expected to be signed next month. Reports suggest Narendra Patni, the eldest brother and chairman and chief executive officer of the company, would buy out a part of the stake which Ashok and Gajendra had put on the block, while the private equity funds would buy the balance.

Indusind Bank Limited, yet another family managed bank which is underperforming the BSE-Bankex just a while ago denied rumours that ABN Amro Bank, Deutsch Bank and other foreign banks are interested in picking up a stake in Indusind Bank. Indusind management said it is not aware of any such developments.

Citi Revises Patni’s Target Downwards

The market is down 400 points while Patni Computers is up by 5%. What’s happening ? Citigroup in a report released this morning has recommended a BUY on Patni Computer Services with a possible M&A story cooking behind the scenes.

Patni trades at a ~50% discount to Satyam on a one-year forward EV/EBITDA basis, has 25% of its market cap in cash and equivalents, and has underperformed the BSE IT index by ~17% over the past two months. It is a high cash position of $300 Million. Expect a recurring earnings CAGR of ~14% over the next three years, slower than those of peers.

Patni at 7x 2007E EV/EBITDA is at deep discounts to its large peers (Infosys is at 19x and Satyam at 14x) and lower than its mid-cap peers (8-10x). Citi sees an upside bias from current levels, with M&A a possible trigger.

Citi has revised the target for Patni from Rs 565 to Rs 525 based on a 20% target-multiple discount to Patni’s closest peer, Satyam. Target price equates to 15x 2008E earnings.

Exide Rights + BHEL Order

Exide Industries announced during the market hours today, 21 August 2007 that a meeting of the board of directors of the company will be held on 28 August 2007 to consider rights issue of shares.

On 20 July 2007, the board of directors of the company had given their approval for acquisition of a 26% stake in a joint venture company in Australia for marketing of traction batteries. The board had also approved the acquisition of the balance 49% shareholding in its existing 51% subsidiary company Caldyne Automatics.

Exide’s net profit jumped 84% to Rs 70.11 crore on 51.4% rise in sales to Rs 663.92 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

BHEL has won contracts worth Rs 6500 crore ($1.6 billion) for setting up power project units. It has won contracts for setting up two units of 500 mega watts (MW) each at the Koderma thermal power station in Jharkhand and two units of 500 MW each at Durgapur Steel Thermal Power Station in West Bengal. The orders have been placed by Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC).

Recently, Bhel had won a Rs 2900-crore contract for building three 500-MW units in north India.

ITC Acquires Technico FMCG

ITC Ltd has announced the acquisition of 100% stake in Technico Pty Ltd, a producer of high-grade potato seeds. Technico is a small company with a turnover of Rs319 mn in FY2007. The acquisition through Russell Credit (ITC’s subsidiary) gives ITC access to highgrade potato seed technology and supply chain expertise needed for procurement of potatoes for its salty-snacks products. Though the company has not disclosed the cost of acquisition, and believe that the transaction is small and is unlikely to have a material impact on the company.

Kotak Securities retain outperform rating on the stock with a target price of Rs225 per share.

Sub-Prime impact on Indian IT Sector

With limited client exposure to sub-prime space, we do not see any near-term impact on the earnings of Indian IT players. Longer-term impact will depend on how events unfold – however, prior experience suggests that cost pressures on US/global corporate have led to higher offshoring. Most Indian IT services companies have significant exposure to BFSI – however exposure to mortgage processing or subprime is limited. The chart below shows IT companies exposure to BFSI.

FIIs have reduced positions to Indian IT stocks after the sub-prime crisis. F&O positions in Infosys Technologies are down significantly. HDFC Fund manager was the first to SELL IT stocks last month.

As data suggests, Wipro, Satyam and HCL Tech are relatively less exposed to the financial services. Tech Mahindra has Zero exposure to the BFSI. We expect some downgrades in the IT sector very soon but continue to remain upbeat on Large Cap IT Consulting companies.

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