Indian Energy Conference

Key notes from the energy / oil / gas conference held in New Delhi.

The demand-supply gap in gas is likely to narrow sharply in the next few years. India’s energy mix looks set to change toward being more gas dependent, albeit marginally. Increasing gas supplies should lead to a quantum jump in cities under the CGD umbrella.
The evolving regulatory environment should facilitate growth in the sector.

We see that India’s dependence on oil is set to fall to 29% in the next 2 decades while dependence on Gas and Nuclear Energy will increase.

In fact, India’s expected dependence at 6% on Nuclear Energy in 2030 is higher than the global average of 5%. Estimated total gas demand in the economy to increase to ~280mmscmd by FY12E (~180 currently), while new and existing domestic supplies would increase to ~150mmscmd.

Apart from this, India will also lay 8,400 Kms of Gas pipeline at an estimated cost of $ 6 Billion. Most of this will be undertaken by GAIL and RIL.

If you are holding RIL, then just hold the stock tight for few more years or maybe another decade 🙂

Unitech – First Real Estate Stock in Index

Unitech Ltd, will be included in National Stock Exchanges benchmark – S&P CNX NIFTY from the 5th of October.

Unitech is the first Real Estate stock to enter the Index beating India’s premier realty developer DLF. Unitech was up 7% at Rs 280.

The news has triggered all the Real Estate stocks. Akruti, OMAXE, Orbit and Ansal are the leading gainers from the space.

Expansion plans charge up Suzlon Energy

Suzlon Energy is reportedly planning to invest around 1 billion euro (Rs 5,600 crore) to nearly triple its production capacity by 2009. The expansion plan would raise Suzlon’s turbine production capacity in India from 2,700 mega watt (MW) now to 5,700 MW by the close of fiscal March 2009.

The report suggested that company also plans to raise its capacity to produce wind gearboxes, made by its unlisted Belgian subsidiary Hansen Transmissions, to 9,300 MW by 2009.

Suzlon’s order book stands at around $3.5 billion, up from $3.3 billion in July 2007, with most of the orders from outside India.

At the current price of Rs 1392.85, the scrip trades at a PE multiple of 112.05, based on Q1 June 2007 annualised EPS of Rs 12.43.

Diamond Cables + Harita Seating

Diamond Cables has announced the receipt of orders for 2750 transformers, out of which 1350 transformers are for 63 KVA, and 1400 transformers for 16 and 10 KVA. These orders are to be executed by company’s wholly owned subsidiary Diamond Power Transformers (western transformers) before 31 March 2008. The company’s wholly owned subsidiary order booking position exceeds Rs 70 crore and the capacity is totally booked till 30 June 2008.

Harita Seating Systems, a leading seat manufacturer for tractors, passenger busers etc in the country has announced issue of bonus shares in the ratio of [1:1] one equity share of Rs 10 each for every one-equity share of Rs 10 each held.

Banco Products + Batliboi Stock Split

Banco Products India has scheduled a meeting of the board of directors to on 26 September 2007 to consider sub-division of the face value of the equity shares.

Recently the company had issued bonus shares in the ratio 1:1.

Batliboi announced during the market hours today, 13 September 2007 that it has fixed 4 October 2007 as the record date for the purpose of stock split from the present face value of Rs 10 to Rs 5 each.

Net profit of Batliboi rose 39.90% to Rs 2.77 crore on a 24.98% rise in sales to Rs 30.52 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Satyam Computers an Outperformer

Kotak Securities is bullish on the prospects of Satyam Computers and maintains an Outperformer rating on the Stock with a price target of Rs 570.

Satyam to deliver significant outperformance on its FY2008 revenue (40% versus its guidance of 35.5% for FY2008) and EPS guidance (Rs25.3 versus guidance of Rs24.5). Expect Satyam to significantly outperform its Sep ’07 quarter guidance of 6% qoq revenue growth. Satyam will deliver the highest revenue growth rate for Satyam in Tier 1 coverage list.

Satyam’s SAP practice has been a major contributor to its strong growth (CQGR of 12% over the past four quarters in the package implementation area—SAP has grown faster than the overall PI business). Satyam’s Engineering Services practice has been among the fastest growing service lines for the company (a CQGR of 14.3% over the past four quarters vs. company average of 9.3%) over the past 12 months.

Kotak values Satyam at Rs570 on absolute DCF valuation methodology. This translates into 22.5XFY2008E and 18.1XFY2009E earnings. Satyam is currently trading at 16.9XFY2008E and 13.6XFY2009E EPS, a 25% discount to Infosys and 15% lower than its historical average.

In a separate development, Sr. Fund Manager, Prashant Jain has totally sold TCS and Wipro in HDFC Equity Fund.

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