Year: 2007

Usha Martin is the world’s second largest wire rope manufacturer. The company is enhancing its backward integration by increasing the proportion of captive metallics (DRI+hot metal), captive coal mining (iron ore is already at 100% captive level) for its sponge iron unit, and maintaining its captive power usage in line with the enhanced capacity. The company is expanding its steel capacity by 2.25x to reach close to 1 mtpa in stages by end of FY09. To support its enhanced steel capacity and keep the operating costs under control, Usha Martin is adding DRI and hot metal/pig iron capacities of 200,000 tpa and 400,000 tpa, respectively, and setting up captive power plants of total 60 MW.

Coal from the company’s coal mine is expected to be available from Q4FY08. Combined wire, strand, and wire rope capacity will increase from the current level of 225,400 tpa to 303,200 in stages in FY09. The proportion of value-added products such as oil tempered wires, bright bars, and TMT bars is also being enhanced, thereby, significantly enriching the company’s already diverse product mix. Considering the usage of its products across engineering, oil and gas, automotive, and construction sectors, Usha Martin is also a proxy play on the oil and gas and infrastructure sectors.

Led by the above capacity expansion cum backward integration project, the company’s topline and bottomline are expected to increase at a CAGR of 20.9% and 43.8% respectively over FY07-10E. At CMP of INR 59, Usha Martin trades at P/E of 6.5x FY09E earnings, which is at a discount of about 30% to the sector average. Edelweiss recommends a BUY on the stock.

Globally LNG projects continue to be delayed, and prices continue to rise. Domestically produced gas in India are US$4.0-5.5/mmbtu, making LNG economics unfavorable esp. in light of ever increasing indigenous supply prospects.

In the current high price environment for LNG, the likelihood of Petronet entering into a long-term agreement anytime soon to secure supplies for its Dahej expansion and greenfield Kochi terminal appear unlikely. Spot volumes will continue to drive earnings in the near term (FY09-10E earnings increased by 11-12%); despite increasing domestic supplies, we build in high long-term utilizations driven by sustained growth in gas demand. Power plans, though interesting, are at a preliminary stage and completely contingent on competitive pricing for long-term LNG.

Petronet LNG stock is up 47% in 1 month, Citi analyst believes that the stock more than adequately reflects the high capacity utilizations (95%) that is assume in numbers in the longer term. Inherent structural challenges (increasing domestic supplies + globally high LNG prices) lend to believe that the risk is now more on the downside and warrants us to change recommendation. The DCF values are quite sensitive to capacity utilization – every 5% dip in utilization affects fair value by Rs6. As a consequence Citi downgrades the stock to Sell (3M) from Buy (1M) with TP of Rs78 on roll-forward.