BUY Bharat Forge

You probably think we are insane to recommend a BUY when the SENSEX is at an all time high. Well our job gets really tough, when India an oil dependent economy has to face the burden of larger fiscal deficit with rising oil prices [$93 / barrel an all time high]. However, our analysts are extremely careful when they recommend a BUY. You will also see some Book Profits recommendation within the next few hours.

Bharat Forge’s standalone Q2 net profit was 27% ahead of estimates, driven by higher sales and huge surprise in margins. (more…)

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Stronger as Expected

Kotak Mahindra Bank stunned analysts on the street with results recording a PAT growth of 147% YoY. Broking profits up 215%+ (100% yoy rise – slight market share gains), and investment banking profits up 218%; and high league table positions. Buoyant primary/secondary markets key drivers;

Asset management group now manages almost $10b in assets – across domestic MF, portfolio management – domestic and offshore, and the more recent, alternative asset class. Key growth area – fees, potential performance fees upsides, business generating synergies and value generator. (more…)

Conflicting Ideas on Idea Cellular

Idea Cellular released disappointing results for 2Q FY08, with key disappointments on ARPU, network operating expenses, subscriber acquisition costs and deferred tax. Due to a sharp fall in ARPU, revenue grew 5.7% QoQ and 54.7% YoY to Rs15.6bn against our estimate of Rs16.4bn (expected growth of 11.3% QoQ). EBITDA margins also disappointed and fell 202bp on QoQ basis to 32.7%. A sharp reduction in margins led to a marginal reduction in EBITDA, which fell 0.4% QoQ to Rs5.1bn. EBITDA was 11% lower than estimates. PAT fell 28.6% QoQ to Rs2.2bn.

All the brokerage houses have conflicting ideas about Idea cellular. Macquarie wireless research expects the company to report an EPS of Rs 5.20 and Rs 6.75 for FY08 and FY09 and has set a target (more…)

Reduce NIIT – Citi

NIIT reported revenue of Rs2.7bn (+33% yoy). EBITDA of Rs359m (+50% yoy). Higher taxes and depreciation, and lower equity income from NIIT Tech led to a net profit of Rs212 m (vs. estimate of Rs246m).

Individual business revenue grew 31% yoy (CIR est. 41%), while EBITDA margin of 23.8% was broadly in line. NIIT said that the price hike for career segment courses in non-metros was from Aug, vs. Jun for metros. Organic corporate business had slower revenue growth, while ElementK growth was in-line. The company introduced new courses for the insurance and (more…)

Deccan Chronicle + Cairn Energy India

Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd reported Q2 FY08 Net Sales at Rs 187.77 crore up 26%.
PAT at Rs. 82.60 crore up 28%. Buy back up to a maximum of Rs.250 crores up to a maximum price of Rs.250 per equity share (Face value Rs.2). The company also told that it is going for a Private placement in its 100% subsidiary Sieger Solutions up to 24%; Enterprise value Rs.1500 crores- Rs.1800 crores .

Cairn India, subsidiary of global eenergy giant reported a net profit of Rs 23.24 crore on total income of Rs 300.11 crore in Q3 September 2007. Figures for the corresponding previous period are not available. This is the first quarter that Cairn India is in Black 🙂 The company had reported a loss of Rs 71 crore in Q2-2007. Their are rumors that BP may BUY Cairn’s parent company for 3.6 Bn pounds. Kotak Research maintains an Underperform rating on Cairn Energy with a target price of Rs 145 based on oil reserves / assets. While CLSA recommends a BUY on the stock with a price target of Rs 230.

Nagarjuna Constructions – BUY

We had an in depth and up to date coverage about Nagarjuna Constructions. Now we are raising the price target to Rs 350. Primary reason for the same is revisions in earnings estimates by -9% to +14% over FY08E-10E. Increasing target multiple for core business to 19x from 16x earlier due to a structural change in the business mix, and rolling forward our target basis to Sept. 09E from Mar. 09E.

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