JP Morgan Downgrades Reliance Communications

JP Morgan [JPM] in a research note has downgraded Reliance Communications from Overweight to Neutral. The main reasons cited by the analysts are poor operating performance and higher valuations.

RCOM’s operating results were below estimates for the second consecutive quarter; 4Q FY07 consolidated revenues/EBITDA came in 2.7%/1.7% below estimates. JPM trims forecasts but raised price target to Rs525 from Rs475 previously, because of a 10% premium to DCF (to partly capture upside from the FLAG listing) and rollover to Jun-08 from Dec-07.

JPM forecast 2-year (FY07-09) EBITDA CAGR of 35% for RCOM versus 44% for Bharti. At JPM’s price target, RCOM would trade at a 16% discount to Bharti on FY08E EV/EBITDA. RCOM stock is likely to trade in a narrow range without further rerating in sector (Bharti) valuations or until the company starts exceeding consensus estimates. JPM downgrades RCOM to Neutral from Overweight noting unattractive relative valuations and only 10% absolute upside potential versus our revised target price of Rs525/share for Jun-08.

Buy RCOM stock at/below Rs400 level. On the other hand, if the share price were to exceed Rs500 level in the near term, book some profits.

Ispat Ind, Mahindra Gesco, Jindal Photo

It was the top-gainer from the ‘A’ group. Steel companies are expected to post strong results in the March 2007 quarter on the back of higher steel prices. Ispat Industries is yet to announce the date for its March 2007 quarter results.

Mahindra Gesco Developers said the FII holdings in the company has reached 27.47% of the paid-up equity capital, as on 4 May 2007.

Jindal Photo reported a 326.3% growth in net profit in Q4 March 2007 at Rs 9.55 crore (Rs 2.24 crore). Net sales rose 5.7% to Rs 110.32 crore (Rs 104.40 crore). For FY 2007 (year ended 31 March 2007), the net profit rose 41.7% to Rs 27.59 crore (Rs 19.47 crore). Net sales declined 5.4% to Rs 360.67 crore (Rs 381.25 crore). The current price of Rs 110.90 discounts its FY 2007 EPS of Rs 26.89, by a PE multiple of 4.12.

Rupee’s continued rise intimidates IT pivotals

IT stocks have turned volatile in the past few days. After a solid surge to 5,150.28 on 16 April from 4,808.08 on 11 April 2007, owing to Infosys’ strong guidance for FY 2008, the BSE IT Index eased and moved between 4,954 and 5,124 up to 4 May 2007.

The rupee rose to a fresh nine-year high against the dollar on Monday, as the market tested how far the central bank would let it appreciate before intervening. By 9:14 IST, the partially convertible rupee was at 40.5450 per dollar, its highest level since May 1998, and gaining from Friday’s close of 40.8450/8600.

The rupee’s surge is a cause of concern for IT firms, as it directly impacts their revenue and profits, a lion’s share of which is accounted for by exports. At the time of announcing Q4 March 2007 results, Infosys had pointed out that its operating margins will be impacted by about 150 – 160 basis points (bps) due to the rupee’s inflation and by 300 bps on account of wage inflation. The company plans to compensate the impact through improved utilisations, lower losses in subsidiaries and scaled benefit from selling & general as well as administration expenses.

IT companies use the tool of hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency movements. TCS is said to have obtained a $1 billion hedge at a price range of Rs 43.50 – Rs 44. Infosys has a forex cover of $ 470 million. Satyam Computer has hedged a position of $ 460 million with a policy to hedge at least 50% position. Wipro has forward hedge contracts (options & futures) of $195 million at an exchange rate between Rs 44 – Rs 45.77.

GMR, Aristrocrat, IndiaBulls

GMR Industries said that the High Court of Andhra Pradesh had sanctioned the scheme of arrangement of Bharat Sugar Mills and GMR Ferro Alloys & Industries with the company.
As per the scheme, the company will demerge its ferro alloys undertaking to GMR Ferro Alloys & Industries and amalgamate Bharat Sugar Mills with itself.

Aristocrat Luggage said its board would meet on 14 May 2007, to consider the proposal of amalgamating the company with VIP Industries.

It has been reliably learnt from Insiders that IndiaBulls Financial Services is exiting out of Retail Stock Broking to focus on High Networth Individuals and Portfolio Management Schemes. At the same time, IndiaBulls is venturing into Personal and Auto Loans.

UBS Maintains BUY on ACC and Grasim

UBS Investment research has maintained BUY recommendations on cement majors ACC and Grasim industries. However, UBS has revised the price target downwards to Rs 1,090 from Rs 1,225 for ACC and Rs 3,100 from Rs 3,300 for Grasim.

ACC:
ACC’s Q1FY07 revenue (Rs16.35bn), EBITDA (Rs5.07bn) and pre-ex PAT (Rs3.44bn) were significantly better than estimates – Rs15.9bn, Rs4.6bn and Rs3bn respectively. Entire difference in PAT from our estimate was due to higher EBITDA.

ACC is expected to report an EPS of Rs 76.45 and Rs 80.76 for FY08 and FY09.

Grasim Industries:
Grasim’s standalone Q4 pre-X PAT (Rs4.5bn) was in line with our estimate (Rs4.6bn), as were revenue and EBITDA. In FY07 consolidated earnings grew 89%, faster than standalone earnings growth of 78%, driven by 249% earnings growth at subsidiary, Ultratech.

Grasim is expected to report an EPS of Rs 252 and Rs 276 for FY08 and FY09 respectively.

Citi bearish on Unitech, Parsvnath and Ansal

In a research note released by Citigroup, analysts have recommended a SELL on Unitech, Parsvnath Developers Ltd and Ansal Properties and Infrastructure. Spiraling property prices, rising interest rates, regulatory intervention in developer funding (on concerns of an asset bubble), supply coming on stream, and aggressive land acquisition by developers (and wannabe developers) are adding to the industry woes.

NAV is best way to value Indian developers : Citi expects NAV to be the standard valuation benchmark for at least the near term, with P/E multiples used more as a secondary methodology or “sanity test”. However, not every institution values Realty stocks like Citi does. Here is how others value Real Estate Stocks.

In the same report, Citi analysts expect Unitech EPS to grow to Rs 20.2 for FY08 and Rs 33.9 for FY09. Parsvnath’s EPS is expected to be Rs 37 and Rs 68 for FY08 and FY09. Ansal Properties’ EPS is expected to be Rs 31.8 and Rs 54 for FY08 and FY09.

Citi says the earnings forecast is already factored into current share price and recommends a SELL with 10% downward potential. Citi expects NCR and other properties to cool off and hence the recommendation.