Lehman’s Bearish View on Indian IT Sector

Report just inLehman Brothers have just released an equity research report initiating coverage on Indian IT stocks. Here is the overview before we get into the details. The report assumes USD pricing of Rs 36 and is Negative on the IT sector.

  • Infosys Technologies [Equal Weight] – 12 Month DCF price Target of Rs 1,793.
  • TCS [Underweight] – 12 Month DCF price Target of Rs 914.
  • Wipro [Underweight] – 12 Month DCF price Target of Rs 422
  • Satyam Computers – [Underweight] – 12 Month DCF price Target of Rs 287

Infosys Technologies:
The macro environment is likely to remain unfavourable due to the appreciating rupee and a possible slowdown in the banking and financial services (BFS) vertical. Lehman estimates a 15.7% EPS CAGR for the next three years (FY07-FY10E) compared with 43.5% in the past three years. Volume growth and price hikes may be impacted negatively due to a cut in discretionary IT spend. The demand environment continues to be good; US dollar revenue CAGR of 35% for the next three years.

Tata Consultancy Services:
A 14% EPS CAGR for the next three years (FY07-FY10E) compared to 35.8% for the past three years. Volume growth and price hikes may be impacted negatively due to cuts in discretionary IT spending. The demand environment continues to be good, because US dollar revenue CAGR of 30.8% for the next three years.

Wipro:
Wipro continues to be hit by relatively slow growth in Telecom equipment manufacturing (TEM) and BPO segments. Lehman projects a 30.6% US dollar revenue CAGR for the company’s Global IT Services and Products business on an organic basis for the next three years compared with 35% for Infosys Technologies (INFY, 2-Equalweight) during the same period. Should result in an EPS CAGR of 15.6% for Wipro in FY07-FY10E.

Wipro has underperformed the most among tier-1 Indian IT stocks in the past five years. This will continue because margins to fall by more than 300bp for the next three years.

Satyam Computers:
Given the deteriorating environment, robust QoQ volume growth as witnessed in the past five quarters and price hikes could be pressured in FY09, in our view. Despite strong volume growth, we estimate an EPS CAGR of 13.4% for the next three years given our expectation of falling margins.

Infy’s Murthy Tries to Climb a Ladder

Naryana Murthy on a Ladder at Infosys CampusFIIs darling in India, Infosys has been deserted for the past quarter since the appreciation of the Indian rupee. Ahead of its results tomorrow, the stock is up 3% at Rs 2,120. Infact all the IT stocks are up on expectation of earnings revision since the cost of VISA pressure is accounted for in Q1.

A total of seven brokerages expect a between 0.58% fall to a 4.6% rise in Infosys’ consolidated net profit as per Indian GAAP to between Rs 1,072.70 crore to Rs 1128.70 crore in Q2 September 2007 compared to net profit of Rs 1,079 crore Q1 June 2007. They expect a between 6.8% to 9.7% growth in Infosys’ revenue at between Rs 4,028.60 crore to Rs 4,138.40 crore in Q2 September 2007 compared to revenue of Rs 3,773 crore in Q1 June 2007.

Infosys had cut EPS guidance in rupee terms to a growth of 15.6% to 16.8% compared to the earlier guidance of 20% to 22% growth. It had also slashed revenue guidance in rupee terms to 16.9% to 18.3%, from earlier guidance of a growth of 22.6% to 24.6%.

All the IT stocks are up on high expectations from Labour Arbitrage IT Services Company. Our analyst is of the view that, the rupee saga will continue and put pressure on IT services companies. Infact it is best to explore other companies such as Capital Goods, Construction and Finance in India.

L&T Order + Tata Motors Hike prices

Larsen & Toubro has received engineering and procurement (E&P) order for setting up high technology methyl amines & dimethyl formamide plants for Methanol Chemical Company (Chemanol). L&T will also provide the technical services for erection and commissioning of the plant.

Chemanol is a private sector enterprise, operating grass roots, second-generation petrochemical complex located in the Al Jubail Industry city, Saudi Arabia, which manufactures formaldehyde and its derivative products.

Tata Motors has hiked the prices of its vehicles to offset the higher input costs and because of costs related to meeting stricter safety norms.

iGate’s Q2 Results

iGate Global Solutions’ net profit surged 124.33% to Rs 23.78 crore on 0.25% rise in sales to Rs 187.86 crore in Q2 September 2007 over Q2 September 2006.

iGate is a subsidiary of iGate Corp, a Nasdaq-listed company. Its services include consulting, enterprise data management and data warehousing, business intelligence and analytics, design, development, system integration, package evaluation and implementation, re-engineering and maintenance.

The scrip had underperformed the market in the one-month to 8 October 2007, adding 5.66% as against the Sensex’s 12.19% gain. It had also underperformed the market in the past three months, declining 11.01% against the Sensex’s 16.53% rise.

The small-cap software firm has an equity capital of Rs 12.66 crore. Face value per share is Rs 4.

TCI + Deccan Chronicle Reports

ICICI Securities in a research report has put a BUY recommendation on Transport Corporation of India Ltd and a SELL on Deccan Chronicle.

Transport Corporation of India [TCI]:
TCI is one of the largest players in the domestic logistics industry, has transformed itself from a transportation company to an integrated logistics solution provider. The company has a presence across the entire logistics value chain and is enhancing its role in the high-value supply chain solution (SCS) business.

TCI is the largest integrated player having a 15% market share of the organised logistics industry. Apart from transportation, it operates one of the largest warehousing facilities of about 6.5 million sq. ft. The company has lined up an aggressive Rs 340 crore capex to scale up its business in order to meet increased demand.It plans to increase its warehousing space, buy new trucks, invest in cold chains, and boost its ship fleet strength over the next three years.

At the current price of Rs 115, the stock discounts its FY09E EPS of Rs 7.11 by 16.1x. Given TCI’s leadership position in the organised logistics sector, and transformation to an integrated player, the stock can be valued at 22x its FY09E earnings. Rate the stock an OUTPERFORMER with a target price of Rs 155, an upside potential of 35% from current levels.

Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd [DCHL]:
With the entry of Times of India in Chennai, ICICI has downgraded DCHL to SELL from BUY. DCHL would be faced with tough competition in both Chennai and Bangalore from the Times of India (ToI), which is set to foray into the Chennai market in Q4FY08; ToI is the leader in print in India. DCHL’s success strategy of low cover pricing and increasing colour inventory in Chennai is likely to be challenged in Bangalore, which is currently a two-player market post ToI acquiring Vijay Times and Deccan Herald.

ICICI downgrades DCHL from Buy to Sell with a target price of Rs.182 and believe any rise in stock should be used to liquidate positions given the looming aggressive competitive scenario.

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