JSW Steel + Gujarat NRE Coke – Macquarie Research

JSW Steel: Global commodities team has revised steel price forecasts upward by 6% and 2% for FY3/09 and FY3/10, respectively, while also increasing iron ore forecasts by 20% each year, and for coking coal by 8% and 5% for FY3/09 and FY3/10, respectively. JSW has recently been allocated 69% in a coking coal mine with mineable reserves of 250mt while it explores for more reserves in Mozambique. It expects to reach 50% self sufficiency in the next 3–4years.

Revising EPS estimates for FY3/08–FY3/10 by 7.5%, 29.2% and 0.3% to Rs100.6, Rs120.3 and Rs160.2 respectively. Increasing the target price to Rs1,203, based on a PER of 10x FY3/09E EPS.

Gujarat NRE Coke:
Global commodities team has upgraded coking coal price forecasts for FY09-11 by 13%, 10% and 6% to US$135/t, US$110/t and US$95/t, respectively.GNC is looking to double its coking coal production to 1mt in FY09, with the completion of purchase of Elouera mine by December 2007. GNC is merging its two mining subsidiaries listed in Australia. This, we believe, will lead to reduction of discount, as the merged entity will be a multi-mine, multi-location company with lower risks.

Revising EPS estimates for FY3/09–FY3/10 by 7.5% and 12.2% to Rs8.1 and Rs8.8 respectively. 12-month price target: Rs140.00 based on a DCF methodology.

BSE Sensex Hits 19,000 – Alltime High

It took just 4 Trading sessions for the Mumbai Stock Exchange SENSEX 30 to hit a new high of 19,092.

Easing of political worries and improved Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figures for August 2007 boosted the bourses today. India’s industrial output in August 2007 rose 10.7% from a year earlier, higher than upwardly revised annual growth of 7.5% in July 2007 due to mining, manufacturing and electricity production, data released by the government showed on Friday, 12 October 2007.

Emerging markets-dedicated equity funds posted strong inflow for yet another week. For the third consecutive week, emerging markets equity funds recorded inflow in excess of $5 billion at $5.1 billion, in the week ended 10 October 2007. Funds dedicated to emerging Asia had the most inflows in the seven-day period, or $2.13 billion.

Axis Bank Posts Strong Q2 Numbers

Axis Bank IndiaAxis Bank’s net profit rose 60.5% to Rs 227.82 crore on 64.1% rise in sales to Rs 2059.37 crore in Q2 September 2007 over Q2 September 2006.

At the current price of Rs 790.90, the scrip trades at a PE multiple of 30.94, based on Q2 September 2007 annualised EPS of Rs 25.56.

The board of the company also proposed to establish a mutual fund, the bank said in a statement to us. Axis Bank is the third largest private bank in India.

L G Balakrishnan Demerger + Jai Corp SEZ

L G Balakrishnan & Bros reportedly plans to spin off its forging division into a separate company so that the division can focus more in its core business and can seek independent joint ventures in future. Reports suggest that the company would list the forging unit on the bourses and the company has already set up a panel to fix the share swap ratio for demerger.

At the current price of Rs 26, the scrip trades at a PE multiple of 11.50, based on Q1 June 2007 annualised EPS of Rs 2.26. Face Value of Rs 1.

Jai Corp is a major promoter in developing the 5,250-acre Navi Mumbai Special Economic Zone, apart from Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Industries (RIL). Jai Corp is focusing on developing one of the largest special economic zones in India. Jai Corp is led by Mukesh Ambani’s friend, Anand Jain who has been with Mukesh Ambani for over 20 years now in Reliance Group.

JAI CORP Ltd has informed BSE that the promoters on October 15, 2007 have sold 2,19,00,000 (two crores & nineteen lakhs) equity shares of the Company through the floor of the exchange.

Jai Corp has invested in two multi product special economic zones near Mumbai – Navi Mumbai SEZ (NMSEZ) and Mumbai SEZ (MSEZ). Both the SEZs are being conceived and developed as a futuristic business hub and gateway for trade, commerce, industry, service and tourism. The NMSEZ will be set up as a joint venture with the City and Industrial Development Corporation (CIDCO) of Maharashtra holding 26%, and RIL holding the rest with Jai Corp.

As per recent reports, Jai Corp is planning to raise a venture capital corpus of Rs 40000 crore through its wholly owned subsidiary, Urban Infrastructure Venture Capital. Reports suggest that Jai Corp has already committed a capital of Rs 22,000 crore in 12 cities in India. The major investments would be in multiuse projects and townships (22% each), residential (15%) commercial (14%), industrial township (12%) and hospitality (6%).

HDFC Bank: Higher PAT, lower operating Profit

HDFC Bank reported net profit of Rs3.68 bn, which was up 44% yoy and 5% higher than our estimate. However, the company exceeded our target largely due to treasury gains.

Core operating performance was 7% below our estimate as the bank reported lower other income and higher expenses. Strong NII growth and moderate growth in fee income drove most of the growth in income. We have tweaked our earnings estimates marginally, so too our target price—to Rs1,300 from Rs1,250. The stock trades at 23X PER and 3.7X PBR FY2009.

JP Morgan on NTPC + HDFC Bank

NTPC: JP Morgan [JPM] initiates coverage on NTPC with Neutral rating and Rs228 DCF-based Price Target. Stripping out financial assets, NTPC trades at FY08E 23.5x P/E and 16.0x EV/EBITDA, in line with regional growth IPPs, especially in China. The sum of Parts valuation is as follows,

  • Core business – Rs 170;
  • Financial investments + cash on hand – Rs38
  • Coal mines – Rs21

Revised estimates and DCF model assume smooth execution of NTPC’s plans to grow installed capacity to 75GW from 26GW by March 2017. NTPC’s strategy/structure are different from those of private IPPs; further re-rating unlikely: IPO announcements/private equity deals have energized Indian utilities’ stock performance.

NTPC is Asia’s third-largest utility company. JPM suggests that to maximize shareholder value, and unlock US$15B value for equity shareholders in an ideal scenario: NTPC can take the following measures (1) explore SPV structure for new projects; (2) optimally leverage future projects; (3) more merchant power projects, given current market environment; (4) better use of B/S potential for organic/inorganic growth; (5) explore carbon credits for supercritical coal, gas and hydro projects.

HDFC Bank: HDBK
HDBK’s net profit growth trajectory has decisively broken out of the 30-32% band seen over the past 20 quarters. Profits grew by 40% in 2Q08, about 8% higher than expected, driven by higher deposit growth and lower provisioning.

Despite the stock appreciating by 21% and marginally outperforming the Sensex over the past month, JPM set the target price to Rs1,610 for Sep-08, implying 13% upside. 150 branch approvals expected shortly is the likely stock catalyst. The shift out of the 30-32% net profit growth band is likely to be driven by: a) higher balance sheet growth trajectory at 35% CAGR over the next three years; and b) wholesale loans dominating growth over this period, leading to an incremental easing of provisioning requirements.

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