Month: September 2007

Kotak Equity research has reiterated a BUY on Pfizer India with a price target of Rs 965.

Pfizer has announced its quarterly results for Q3CY07, which is disappointing at the revenue level. Net sales fell 1.6% to Rs.1.76 bn from Rs.1.78 bn. Reported net profit was up 9.8% to Rs.308 mn as compared to Rs.281 mn. The pharma and consumer healthcare business fell 3.5% to Rs.1.58 bn. The animal healthcare business rose 18% to Rs.179 mn and income from clinical development services declined 38.1% to Rs.43 mn.

The company is targeting 14% compounded revenue growth (for continuing business) and a 500 bps expansion in EBITDA margin by CY10. New launches through the parent’s portfolio as well as launch of patented products from CY08 onwards will be key revenue drivers. EBITDA margins are likely to improve from the existing 25% to about 30% by CY10 led by higher revenue growth, outsourcing of manufacturing and cost reductions in the distribution/supply chain areas.

Pfizer currently has 3.1 bn cash. It will receive 2.27 bn cash from sale of its Chandigarh property. Further 3.5 bn is expected from sale of its consumer health care business. In all it is likely to have Rs 10 bn in cash which translates to Rs 335 / share. At the current market price of Rs.720, the stock is trading at 14.5x CY07 and 12.1x CY08 earnings estimate. Kotak maintains BUY with a target price Rs.965.

Usha Martin is the world’s second largest wire rope manufacturer. The company is enhancing its backward integration by increasing the proportion of captive metallics (DRI+hot metal), captive coal mining (iron ore is already at 100% captive level) for its sponge iron unit, and maintaining its captive power usage in line with the enhanced capacity. The company is expanding its steel capacity by 2.25x to reach close to 1 mtpa in stages by end of FY09. To support its enhanced steel capacity and keep the operating costs under control, Usha Martin is adding DRI and hot metal/pig iron capacities of 200,000 tpa and 400,000 tpa, respectively, and setting up captive power plants of total 60 MW.

Coal from the company’s coal mine is expected to be available from Q4FY08. Combined wire, strand, and wire rope capacity will increase from the current level of 225,400 tpa to 303,200 in stages in FY09. The proportion of value-added products such as oil tempered wires, bright bars, and TMT bars is also being enhanced, thereby, significantly enriching the company’s already diverse product mix. Considering the usage of its products across engineering, oil and gas, automotive, and construction sectors, Usha Martin is also a proxy play on the oil and gas and infrastructure sectors.

Led by the above capacity expansion cum backward integration project, the company’s topline and bottomline are expected to increase at a CAGR of 20.9% and 43.8% respectively over FY07-10E. At CMP of INR 59, Usha Martin trades at P/E of 6.5x FY09E earnings, which is at a discount of about 30% to the sector average. Edelweiss recommends a BUY on the stock.