Indian Banks – Results Expectations

The results expectations for quarter ended June-30th from Indian Banking sector according to Citgroup research is as follows.

The top consistent performers are likely to be,
Punjab National Bank is expected to report Rs 405 crore Net Profit for Q12008. 10% increase YoY and 71% increase on QoQ basis.

Bank of Baroda is expected to report Rs 270 crore Net Profit for Q12008. 66% increase YoY and 10% increase on QoQ basis.

State Bank of India is expected to report Rs 1163 crore Net Profit for Q12008. 46% increase YoY and 22% decrease on QoQ basis.

The scenario is quite negative when it comes to private sector banks. All of them are likely to underperform compared to quarter ending March-2007.

ICICI Bank is expected to report Rs 696 crore Net Profit for Q12008. 12% increase YoY and 16% decrease on QoQ basis.

HDFC Bank is expected to report Rs 320 crore Net Profit for Q12008. 33% increase YoY and 9% decrease on QoQ basis.

UTi/Axis Bank is expected to report Rs 165 crore Net Profit for Q12008. 37% increase YoY and 22% decrease on QoQ basis.

HDIL Oversubscription + Allotment

The IPO of Mumbai’s leading Real Estate player, HDIL was oversubscribed 6.6 times mainly from FIIs and PE Funds. Here is the breakup as obtained from the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 17460000 176952454 10.1347

2 Non Institutional Investors 2910000 5187182 1.7825

3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 8730000 13886194 1.5906

The retail individual investor portion was subscribed mere 1.5 times. So any retail investor who has applied for more 28 shares will get a firm allotment of at least 14 equity shares. The Grey market premium as of today, is Rs 22, it may change depending on the market’s perception for real estate stocks. Good Luck for your listing gains.

Real Estate IPO – DLF will list tomorrow. If their are any listing gains Book at least 50% profits as you will get a chance to re-enter the stock at lower levels.

BEML Subscription and Allotment

The IPO of BEML was oversubscribed 30.65 times according to a release from National Stock Exchange. Here is the breakup.

Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 2205000 139654750 63.3355

2 Non Institutional Investors 661500 5604055 8.4717
3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 1543500 4930965 3.1947

The individual investors retail portion of the issue was subscribed 3.1 times. So any retail investor applying for 20 or more shares will get firm allotment of 5 shares. Even if you have applied for 15 shares, your chances of allotment are very high.

[Don’t look for grey market because BEML is already listed and Current Market Price of BEML is Rs 1239]

Update:
BEML issue price has been fixed at Rs 1,075 for 49 lakh shares in the FPO [Follow on Public Offer]

IndiaBulls ADR + IFCI Derivatives Curb

Indiabulls Real Estate priced its US$ 360 million GDRs offering on the Luxembourg stock exchange at US$ 10.32 per GDR. Each GDR represents one equity share of the Company of nominal value Rs 2 each. The company has also granted an over-allotment option of up to US$ 40 million to Merill Lynch International.

NSE has banned building fresh derivatives positions in IFCI as 95% of market wide limit had reached in the stock. Trading in IFCI derivatives contracts will only be allowed to reduce positions. The scrip touched a high of Rs 63.40 and low of Rs 59.75 so far during the day. On BSE, 72.94 lakh shares were traded in the scrip.

The stock had average daily volume of 1.33 crore shares on BSE in past one quarter.
The company’s equity capital is Rs 639.99 crore, with 63.99 crore outstanding shares of a face value of Rs 10 each. The scrip gained 36% in one month to 3 July 2007 versus Sensex’s 2.14% rise. It added 98.11% in past three months against Sensex’s 15.80% rise.

Himatsingka Seide acquires 80% stake in Divatex

Himatsingka Seide has acquired an 80% stake in Divatex Home Fashions Inc. New York through its subsidiary Himatsingka America Inc. The agreement was signed on 01 July 2007 in New York, the enterprise value for the transaction is US$ 75 MM.
Divatex is among the top three distributors of bed linen products in the US.

As Divatex is a large distributor of bed linen products, there will be significant synergies for sourcing requirements from the new US$ 100 MM bed linen facility of Himatsingka at the Hassan Special Economic Zone in Karnataka. The facility has commenced trial production and is likely to commence commercial production in July 2007

HDIL – Review and Recommendation

Housing Development and Infrastructure (HDIL), part of the Wadhwan group develops real estate mainly in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Since its incorporation in 1996, the company has developed 23 projects covering approximately 11 million square feet of saleable area, including about 5.7 million square feet of land sold to other builders after the development. It also have constructed an additional two million square feet of rehabilitation housing area under the slum rehabilitation schemes. Dewan Housing Finance Corporation, a listed company is part of the promoter group.

HDIL is coming out with an IPO to fund acquisition of land or land development rights for its ongoing and planned projects. The price band is Rs 430- Rs 500.

HDIL has land reserves of approximately 112.1 million square feet of saleable area to be developed through 32 ongoing or planned projects. The company has 21 ongoing projects under construction and development, aggregating to approximately 45.5 million square feet of saleable area, and has 11 planned projects aggregating approximately 66.6 million square feet of saleable area. Of the land reserves, about 73.4% is actually owned by the company; and 15.7% of it is to be acquired under memorandum of understanding (MoU) and agreements.

Advances from customers are Rs 512.1 crore end March 2007, representing amounts that have been received from customers but not booked by the company as sales. As and when the projects are completed, this amount will percolate to the top line. This represents 43% of the reported FY 2007 revenue. There was an inventory of Rs 1324.48 crore (approximately 98% constitutes work in progress) end March 2007.

On the flip side:
Of the total land bank, 82% is in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, with a significant proportion in the Vasai-Virar region and in residential projects. The currently benchmark rates in Vasai-Virar region are in the range of only Rs 1000-1800 per square feet. In the year ending March 2007, 69% of reported revenue was derived from selling of development rights/floor space index (FSI).

Valuation:
Knight Frank had valued HDIL’s per share value at Rs 984. Cushman & Wakefield has valued per share value at Rs 1028. These valuations are six months old and the real-estate market condition has changed after that.

Consolidated FY 2007 EPS on post-issue equity, assuming green shoe option is exercised, works out to Rs 25.3. At the offer price band of Rs 430 – Rs 500, the P/E range is 17-19.8, respectively. Comparable companies location-wise (focused on Mumbai) are: Akruti Nirman (mainly into slum rehabilitation) and Orbit Corporation (mainly into redeveloping projects) are trading at P/E of 31.5 and 16, respectively. However both these companies are much smaller compared with HDIL. Comparable listed player in terms of size, Parsvnath Developers (with development rights of approximately 151 million square feet), is currently trading at 22 times its FY 2007 earning.

Recommendation:
Investors willing to hold for long term / with some risk appetite should apply as their will be listing gains for sure.

Real Estate Major – DLF will list on July-5th on the bourse.