Pantaloon Retail a SELL – Merill Lynch

Our Research Analyst had reported this exclusive story about the SELL recommendation on India’s number one retailer – Pantaloon Retail India Ltd.

Pantaloon’s value retail same-store sales growth has been slipping for the last 3 months. April was a shocker with only 2 % growth – the lowest ever in last 3 years (ignoring the festival seasonality of Oct/Nov). Business has been dull in April but it it unclear as to which stores suffered from weak sales. Poor April has pulled down the YTD same store sales growth to 17% – significantly lower than 34% in FY05 and 23% in FY06. Summer is the time when Retail Sales pick up around the world but we are seeing a fall in Pantaloon.

Cons. sales for April grew 64% YoY, much lower than the avg 80%+ growth over the last four months. Pantaloon needs to grow at over 100% YoY over the next two months to achieve our full year sales target. This looks difficult to achieve.

Falling same-store sales growth in value retail is an additional negative. Add to it imminent inventory write off of Rs450mn as per mgmt. The outlook is deteriorating and valuations are not reflecting the likely earnings slowdown. Merill reiterates Sell on Pantaloon.

Nitin Fire Protection Industries

Nitin Fire Protection Industries, promoted by Nitin M Shah alias Sanghavi, was incorporated to manufacture fire extinguishers. The company presently provides fire protection, and safety and security by offering end-to-end turnkey solutions. This business is carried through two wholly owned subsidiaries and one partnership concern.

The other business of high-pressure seamless cylinders is presently carried through wholly owned subsidiary Eurotech Corporation, which outsources the manufacture of these cylinders to China. CNG gases are transported to CNG stations through CNG cascades. The company also manufactures these cascades.

Recently, Nitin Fire Protection Industries floated another wholly owned subsidiary Nitin Cylinders to set up a manufacturing unit of high pressure seamless cylinders at the Vizag special economic zone (SEZ) primarily to cater to the export market. The company has planned a capacity of 5,00,000 units per annum at this plant, which will come up in two phases. The first phase of 2,50,000-unit capacity is scheduled to commence production in May 2007, while the second phase is scheduled for commissioning by October 2007. The total cost of this expansion is estimated at Rs 118.08 crore. The company is coming out with an initial public offer of equity shares to partially finance this expansion.

The high-pressure seamless cylinders primarily cater to the industrial, medical, fire-fighting and beverages segments. However, with the advent of CNG as an alternative eco-friendly automotive fuel, a new segment has opened up, which is growing rapidly in India as well as globally.

To further benefit from the evolving market for CNG applications, Nitin Cylinders also intends to make and sell fuel dispensers. It has entered into an MoU for technology transfer with Kraus Global Inc., Canada, and for the supply of its proprietary products in India, Bangladesh and the UAE.

Nitin Fire Protection Industries picked up a 10% stake in the consortium along with petroleum giants such as GSPC (20%), Gail (20%), HPCL (20%,), BPCL (10%), Hallworthy (10)% and Silverware (10%) for the exploration and prospecting of crude oil block RJ-ONN-2004/1, admeasuring a contract area of 4,613 sq. km, in Rajasthan. The cost of operating the oil block is estimated at about US$ 30.67 million out of which the company’s share works out to US$ 3.07 million (over Rs. 13 crore).

Strengths:

Operating from SEZ will help in effectively tapping global markets for high pressure seamless cylinders. The demand for high-pressure seamless cylinders to carry CNG will continue to grow at a high rate due to the global shift to CNG as an automotive fuel. The business of CNG cascades and the tie-up for manufacturing CNG fuel dispensers for domestic markets hold immense potential for future with a number of city gas distribution projects planned. The availability of natural gas is expected to double in the next two years.

Weaknesses:

Will need to establish its brand image and marketing network in the export markets.
Foray into oil exploration looks diversionary and may lock up funds in unrelated business.

Valuation:
The price band for the IPO is Rs 171 to Rs 190, which translates into a P/E of 21.0x at the lower band and 23.3x at the higher band on the consolidated EPS (on post-IPO equity) of Rs 8.2 for the year ended March 2007. Around 51% of the consolidated profit comes from the fire protection business and the balance from the cylinder business. The proposed project is in the cylinder business. The nearest comparable company in the cylinder business is Everest Kanto Cylinders, which already commands substantial market share in this business, is currently trading at Rs 1168, with P/E of 37.6 times consolidated nine-month annualised EPS. The strong financial and stock market performance of Everest Kanto after listing is likely to augur well for Nitin Fire Protection in the short term.

HDFC Bank to raise Rs 4200 crore

HDFC Bank’s board on 17 May 2007 had approved a proposal to raise additional Rs 4,200 crore. The above proposed equity issue will result in the reduction of the present shareholding of the promoter group, i.e. the HDFC Group which currently holds 21.56% stake.

With a view to maintain the promoter’s shareholding at same levels, the company has proposed to offer 1,35,82,000 equity shares at Rs 1023.49 each to promoters. The balance amount of the proposed equity capital may be raised through domestic or international markets

Morgan Stanley Downgrades Bajaj Auto

Just a while ago JM Morgan Stanley hasdowngraded Bajaj Auto to Equal-Weight from OverWeight. he Target Price has also been downgraded from Rs 3,000 to Rs 2,600.

The research note said, investors should focus not only on the valuation of non-automotive operations if the de-merger proposal goes through, but, more importantly, the value of the underlying core automotive operations.

The downgrade essentially reflects concerns on core implied automotive operations. With core earnings (down to 17.3% CAGR F2007-09E from 20% CAGR in F2003-07) and volume (down to 10.9% CAGR F2007-09E from 21.4% in F2003-07) growth coming off, the valuation multiple on core operations could potentially get de-rated.

Usha Martin dividend, stock-split; Orient Paper rights issue

Usha Martin’s board just a while ago recommended a dividend of Rs 3.75 per share.
Further, the board also recomended for splitting each equity shares of Rs 5 each into five equity shares of Rs 1 each.

Orient Paper & Industries board would meet on 24 May 2007 to consider the proposed rights issue of up to Rs 175 crore.

Suzlon Energy had launched a $ 300 million zero coupon foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) issue with a conversion price of Rs 1800 per share. The bonds, which have a maturity of five years and one day, are expected to be listed on the Singapore Exchange

Alfa Laval, Dena Bank Move Up

Alfa Laval AB, a world leader in heat transfer, centrifugal separation and fluid handling, had on 26 February 2007 announced a public offer to increase its holding in Alfa Laval India to 90% at Rs 875 per share. The Alfa Laval Group currently holds 64% in Indian company.

State run Dena Bank gained 11.62% to Rs 45.15 on market talks of its takeover by Canara Bank. The talks are at advanced stage and Canara Bank is reported to have appointed Ernst & Young to explore the possibility

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