ICRA – Review and Recommendation

ICRA is India’s number two credit rating agency after CRISIL. Historically, the income of these agencies is directly proportional to the mood on Dalal Street. Moody’s have significant stake in ICRA and will be in full control of the company.

The current IPO, is an offer for sale and none of the proceeds will goto the company where you will be a shareholder. IFCI, SBI and UTI are selling their stake and Moody’s will get control of the company. ICRA still has 399 public issues under its belt and they are actively involved in rating the country’s debt instruments as well. The company will also benefit from Rating outsourcing services, Technical and Analytical Research of parent company’s clients from Wall Street.

On the FLIP side, ICRA has borrowed Rs 50 crore from banks to fund the ESOS Welfare Trust (ESOSWT) for subscription to the preferential allotment made to it under the employee stock option plan (ESOP). The interest costs will take a direct hit on the bottom line of the company.

Financials:
The company doesn’t have any topline growth YoY. Total Income for FY2002 was Rs 31.5 crore and for FY2006 it was 35.1 crore. For the 9 Months ending Dec-2006, the company had a top line of Rs 31.9 crore and a PAT of Rs 11.7 crore. Annualizing the company’s results on fully diluted equity(Rs 10 crore) ICRA will report an EPS of Rs 15.6 for March-2007.

IPO Offer:
Fully Diluted Equity after IPO: Rs 10.00 crore.
Offer Price: Rs 275 to Rs 300
Retail Offer: 903,385 shares. Issue Size of Retail is mere VERY VERY Small – Rs 24.8 crore to Rs 27 crore.

Recommendation:
ICRA has very good promoters and is a very small company with good opportunities for growth. ICRA has been offered at a P/E of 19.2 at higher end. Comparing this to CRISIL which currently trades over a P/E of 40+, one maybe tempted to apply. However, CRISIL’s price at a P/E of 40+ is highly unjustified [You can justify in comment, if you like].

Personally, I like to chase growth stocks [Amtek Auto, Punj Lloyd, Tech Mahindra, etc] and ICRA has to prove that its a growth stock by getting Business and increasing its topline which it hasn’t done in the past 4 years. Also since the issue is very small, I am personally skipping the issue since the allotment will be in lottery.

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PSU Banks going back to Government

The finance ministry has ordered the recasting of the boards of all listed public-sector banks, cutting down the number of shareholder directors by 50% while raising the number of government appointed “independent” directors.

Extremely Bad Decision as the government’s grip on public-sector banks will increase.

In a related development, the government has also withdrawn its own directors as well as the Reserve Bank of India’s directors from the management committees of bank boards. This key board committee is responsible for clearing all big-ticket loans that cannot be cleared by the CEO of a bank. The loan-sanctioning power of the public-sector bank CEO is limited to Rs60 crore at small banks and Rs100 crore at big banks. This reminds me of the series of co-operative banks that went bankrupt in between late 90s and 2002 because of involvement of corrupt directors.

Bank CEOs, in private, say that while such nominees are technically independent professionals, in reality most of them are political appointments and normally belonging to the party in power. For instance, one so-called independent director who is set to join a large Mumbai-based bank is Rani Satish, the former minister of state for Kannada and Culture from the ruling Congress party.

“On what basis do I remove a shareholders’ nominee?” asks a visibly frustrated chairman of a very large public sector bank, who says the timing of the government decision is unfortunate because public-sector banks need more outside expertise at a time when they are trying to compete more aggressively with private banks that can attract a more diverse board.

The terrible decision by government to recast public sector bank boards does not technically abide by the capital market regulator’s norms on independent directors on the boards of listed entities. In accordance with Clause 49 of the listing norms, all listed corporations should have 50% independent directors on their boards.

Hopefully the rating agencies like Fitch and Moody’s will downgrade India to RISKY category.

FAG Bearings India Analysis

FAG Bearings India is a 51.33% subsidiary of German major FAG Kulgelfishcer Georg Schafer AG. Net sales revenue jumped 29% to Rs 147.53 crore in the quarter ended December 2006. Operating profit margin (OPM) increased 30 basis points (bps) to 23.1%. Thus, operating profit (OP) was up 30% to Rs 34.03 crore. Profit after tax (PAT) before prior-period adjustments (PPA) rose 33% to Rs 20.54 crore.

Net sales surged 33% to Rs 550.73 crore in the year ended December 2006. OPM moved up 290 bps to 23%. Thus, OP soared 53% to Rs 126.83 crore. PAT before PPA zoomed 50% to Rs 74.85 crore.

FAG Bearings India has been growing consistently at an attractive rate. Over the last three years (FY 2003 to FY 2006), sales have grown at a CAGR of 27% and net profit at a CAGR of 48%. OPM improved every year, from 17.2% to 23% in this period. The return on capital employed (ROCE) at 42.5% (in FY 2005) is one of the highest in the manufacturing sector.

FAG Bearings India, manufacturer of ball bearings, cylindrical roller bearings and spherical roller bearings, is a leading supplier to the automotive industry, mechanical and electrical engineering industry, besides the Railways.

The customer list consists of leaders in their respective industries. In the automobile industry, FAG Bearings India’s clients are Maruti Udyog, Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Tractors, Ford India, General Motors, Hero India, Hyundai India, M&M, New Holland, Tata Motors, and TVS Motors. In the engineering industry, the buyers are ABB, Bhel, Bharat Bijlee, Crompton Greaves, and Siemens. In the machinery sector, the company supplies to LMW, HMT, and Textools. Elecon Engineering and Neyveli Lignite in the material-handling sector and Bhel and NTPC in the thermal power sector are also its clients. Besides, FAG Bearings has many customers in the electric fan, transmission product, steel, paper, construction machinery, pump and rolling mill sectors. It also caters to the Indian Railways.

FAG Bearings had planned a Rs 80-crore capex in calendar year (CY) 2006. It is understood that it has carried our capex as per plans. Full benefit of this capacity expansion will help it to sustain its healthy sales growth in FY 2007.

The recent launch of the diesel version of Swift will give significant additional volume to FAG Bearings India — the sole supplier of bearings to Maruti’s Swift. The company also has good export business (around 18% of sales). Exports had come to its rescue even when domestic growth had slowed down in the past.

The automotive industry, the main user of bearings, remains in high gear with most categories of vehicles registering robust year-on- year growth. With road and other infrastructure poised for accelerated development as well as penetration of personalised transport set to increase with rising disposable income, the potential of continued healthy growth for the automobile industry is considered good.

The increasing exports of automotive products from India and the sourcing policy of global majors have resulted in India developing into a manufacturing hub for auto component manufacturers. As a cost effective and quality supply source, FAG Bearings India is well positioned to benefit from this indirect exports also.

The demand from the Railways, another important market segment, and other user industries such as thermal power plants, transmission products, steel, paper, construction machinery, pumps, material handling is also expected to be buoyant.

In FY 0712, we expect FAG Bearings India to register sales and net profit of Rs 688.41 crore and Rs 96.01 crore, respectively. EPS works out to 57.8. At the current share price of Rs 587, PE stands at just 10.1.

HDFC Bank Online Mutual Fund Interface Sucks

India’s leading Private Bank, HDFC Bank is an arrogant bank and sucks badly in customer service.

Here is a Case Study on how HDFC Bank has violated the norms of Association of Mutual Funds of India in providing online mutual fund access to its consumers. I am one of the victim.

I bought units worth Rs 5,000 in Tata Index Fund Nifty Plan – Option A – Dividend Reinvestment. I had downloaded and read the offer document twice before investing. After my initial investment, the market fell and I wanted to BUY some more units, say worth Rs 2,000. I log on to my HDFC Bank and I was shocked that their interface doesn’t let me invest less than Rs 5,000. I bought this to the attention of customer service and they are writing back that it has been clearly mentioned in terms and conditions. I wrote back saying HDFC Bank cannot float its own norms and they have to follow AMFI and Terms mentioned in the offer document. Unfortunately, I can’t sue them because of WEAK legal system in India.

Here are the screen shots to prove my point.



This is how HDFC Bank takes customers for a ride. I would advise all our readers to stay away from HDFC Bank’s Online Mutual Fund interface for investing.

ITC to enter snacks segment

ITC has resolved to launch snack foods, to widen its portfolio of consumer goods and foods. ITC is India’s top cigarette maker that also has interests in hotels, paperboard, apparel, retail and information technology, already sells ready-to-eat foods, biscuits and confectionery.

ITC has estimated that branded snacks segment is growing at 30% annually. The category is dominated by unbranded regional firms. ITC’s Bingo brand will initially sell varieties of potato chips and finger snacks priced at Rs 5 and Rs 10.

I am a little bit confused as to what is the core business of ITC now ? You thoughts 🙂

Dabur India jumps into retail bandwagon

On 13 March 2007, Dabur India had announced its plans to enter the organized retail market in India, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, H&B Stores (under incorporation). The Burman Family sold their stake in Punjab Tractors Ltd to pump cash into the retail venture.

The company will invest Rs 140 crores by 2010 to enter the retail market in India with a chain of stores on the Health & Beauty format. The company plans to establish stores ranging from 1,500 sq ft to 6,000 sq ft in size, offering international quality store environment and product range.

Three senior professionals and experts from the global retail industry have been roped in to drive the company’s retail foray. This venture is also synergistic with the company’s current portfolio of Ayurvedic & Herbal products and would add significantly to the company’s distribution footprint.